2004 Wildcard Weekend Picks
Our wild card picks weren't so strong last year, but we did gain momentum as time rolled on. Philip Delyani joins
us as a special guest for another playoff season, and new staff writer Ed Barnes takes a crack at prognostication. Last year, Adam went 8-3 overall. Who will win this year...
|
Adam Conn |
Brian Wilmer |
Matt Phillips |
Ed
Barnes |
Philip Delyani |
Tennessee at Baltimore (-1)
Saturday 4:30 pm (ABC) |
Tennessee |
Tennessee |
Tennessee |
Baltimore |
Baltimore |
Dallas at Carolina (-3)
Saturday 8:00 pm (ABC) |
Dallas |
Carolina |
Carolina |
Dallas |
Carolina |
Seattle at Green Bay (-7)
Sunday 1:00 pm (FOX) |
Green Bay |
Green Bay |
Green Bay |
Green Bay |
Green Bay |
Denver at Indianapolis (-3)
Sunday 4:30 pm (CBS) |
Indy |
Denver |
Denver |
Indy |
Denver |
Adam Conn, Founder
Tennessee at Baltimore (-1)
We start our playoff season with the awesome defense and running game of the Baltimore Ravens hosting the run-stuffing defense of the Titans and the much-injured Steve McNair and much-maligned Eddie George.
This battle comes down to Jamal Lewis versus the Tennessee defense. Whoever wins this battle, wins the game. Anthony Wright, the Ravens nineteenth-string quarterback, can't win this game chucking the ball into the Tennessee secondary. If Baltimore can swing some screens and short passes to the edges to spread the Titans defense out, they will be able to run. But I don't have that confidence in Wright.
Yes Tennessee is banged up and on the road, but they are the much better team here. I take the road dog.
Adam's Pick: Tennessee
Dallas at Carolina (-3)
Winner not only advances, but gets Coach of the Year honors. But it will be the last win for either team this season. Parcells took a blossoming defense and a horrid offense and turned it into a great defense and a somewhat adequate offense. And he did it with Quincy Carter.
Carolina faced the league's worst opposition, winning three out of four overtime games. Down the stretch, however, they loss three in a row to Dallas, Philly, and Atlanta, then squeaked by a pathetic duo in Detroit and Arizona. Dallas too slowed down in the final weeks of the season, showing lackluster efforts while getting torched by Philly, New England, and Miami.
This game comes down to which defense can make the other quarterback look worse. Carolina wins this game if they can keep pressure on Carter without giving up big plays. Carter will fumble and take sacks if he's kept contained. I forsee a lot of blitz packages, leaving man coverage on dangerous but sporadic receivers like Joey Galloway and Terry Glenn.
But I see Parcells adjusting Carter for this, and getting Galloway and Glenn to step up this week. Likewise, I see the Cowboys trying to force Jake Delhomme to make mistakes trying to counter the blitz. I forsee Carolina running Stephen Davis a lot on delays and draws to try get the Cowboys in coverage. In the battle of Carter versus Delhomme, I'd much rather change the channel, but I think Dallas has the stronger
defense and the better position to win this one on the road.
Adam's Pick: Dallas
Seattle at Green Bay (-7)
Through several miracles, Green Bay makes it back to the playoffs and once again gets homefield advantage in the first round. But unlike last year when they faced a red hot Michael Vick, the Packers face a very soggy Seattle team. Seattle responded well to a must win situation last week despite going down 14 points early, but they were playing a Dennis Erickson "coached" 49ers without Terrell Owens.
Green Bay beat up on a pathetic Oakland and a second-string Denver, but the momentum of their miracle return gives them strength. The last time Mike Holmgren's team bus drove down his street, they were promptly destroyed 35-13 by a Packers team still reeling from a loss to Minnesota at home and Arizona on the road.
Seattle has only one way to win this game — make Brett Favre throw interceptions and/or get Ahman Green to put the ball on the ground. Green hasn't fumbled since changing elbow pads during the Monday night contest with Philly in week 10. Favre, who normally throws at least one or two ill-advised balls and a couple that bounce funny after breaking someone's hand, threw no picks against only two teams this season — Oakland on Monday night and Seattle in week 5. Seattle has to force at least 3 interceptions to win this game.
Much will be made about Hasselback and Holmgren returning to Green Bay to face ex-Seahawks Sherman and Green. I'd lean towards the latter and the crowd to win this one.
Adam's Pick: Green Bay
Denver at Indianapolis (-3)
I don't know who is more sick of hearing that a Manning can't win a big game. Archie never won an SEC title nor ever appeared in a playoff game; Peyton's never won a playoff game or fought for the national championship. Indy has tremendous offensive weapons and a great defensive coach. Indy has improved tremendously on defense since acquiring Dungy, but may need one more draft/free agency period to get the team stocked with what he needs to dominate.
Denver has a bevy of running backs that seem to run for 2000 miles, but then lose something vital in their knee. Their offensive line bullies and wears down defenses, springing monsterous holes for their backs to scoot through. But their receiver corp is a fright. Ashley Lelie appears frightened to catch the ball at times, Ed McCaffrey doesn't look like he can sustain one more hit. Rod Smith and Shannon Sharpe must step up and be available on slant routes, and the Denver defense and special teams must play at a very high level and get every break possible.
I know Denver won this game two weeks ago in Indy, but I just don't think they can do it twice in a row.
Adam's Pick: Indianapolis
Brian Wilmer, Senior Staff Writer
Tennessee at Baltimore (-1)
If we are to believe the media with regard to this game, these two teams should show up and flip the coin, then have Baltimore declared the champion. Even the Nashville media seems to have handed this game to Baltimore, with the dreaded mention of Baltimore being Tennessee's "daddy".
There are a lot of interesting sub-stories in this game. This could very well be Eddie George's last game in a Titans uniform, Frank Wycheck's last game ever, and Jamal Lewis put 2000 yards on the board in 2003.
The x-factor: Tennessee limiting the Baltimore run game. Tennessee has had a propensity for shutting down prolific running backs this year (McAllister 11 carries, 8 yards; Stephen Davis 11 carries, 20 yards; Ricky Williams 37 yards), and they will need another Herculean effort in this game to win. Anthony Wright is a limited passer, and Baltimore will be in trouble if they have to rely on his ability to lead them to victory. Wright is merely an overseer of the Baltimore gameplan, not a big-game QB.
Brian's pick: Tennessee 20, Baltimore 13
Dallas at Carolina (-3)
If it is a battle of inconsistency you crave, check out this game. This contest features two of the more up-and-down teams in the league in 2003, and will also showcase two of the more nondescript playoff quarterbacks you will ever see.
Jake Delhomme was given a somewhat sizeable free-agent deal to leave New Orleans to come to Carolina, and whether it is the Panther offensive plan or simply a lack of skill on Delhomme's part, the Panthers were in trouble in games in which the running game was halted. Quincy Carter was handed the reins in Dallas after a strong preseason, but has gone from penthouse to doghouse on a seemingly weekly basis.
The x-factor: Establishing a passing game. Both teams have extremely stout defenses, and both have the innate ability to halt even the strongest running game. Dallas especially will need to get a strong effort from the passing game to be a presence in this one.
Brian's pick: Carolina 17, Dallas 10
Seattle at Green Bay (-7)
Green Bay did not know of their playoff fate until the latest possible moment last weekend, and Seattle struggled down the stretch to even be here. Mike Holmgren has engineered an impressive turnaround of a previously-dormant Seahawks franchise, and the Packers again had a very strong year.
Holmgren's return to Green Bay should be a most interesting one, with nice offensive weapons representing both teams.
The x-factor: Brett Favre, and the emotion surrounding him. The Packers looked truly inspired in the two games after Favre's father's death, and emotion can go a long way in a playoff setting. It can take players to heights unimagined, and can truly be the determining factor in a team's advancement. Look for that to be the case in this one.
Brian's pick: Green Bay 30, Seattle 20
Denver at Indianapolis (-3)
This rematch of two weeks ago should be quite entertaining, as Quentin Griffin shredded the Colts' defense for 135 yards in Clinton Portis' absence during the original matchup in week 16. Denver looked nothing like that team in week 17, although admittedly without several of their key players.
The intriguing thing to watch in this one should be Peyton Manning's past inability to win "the big one". It will be worth watching to see if Manning can get the proverbial monkey off his back against a Denver team that humiliated his troops a few short days ago.
The x-factor: Time of possession. Denver won the time of possession battle in a very convincing manner in week 16 (44:58 to Indianapolis' 16:02), and they will need to have a similar performance in this one to control the game. With Jake Plummer being a dual threat in the offensive backfield, and the return of Clinton Portis, Denver is a very formidable #6 seed.
Brian's pick: Denver 27, Indianapolis 21
Matt Phillips, Staff Writer
Tennessee at Baltimore (-1)
Why: Two words: Steve McNair. It's really Tennessee's kind of balanced
offense versus Baltimore's rush game. Yes, Jamal Lewis will get his 100
yards or so, but it will be on at least 35 carries. The Titans have the
best rush defense in the league, so how is Baltimore going to establish
any kind of balance on offense with an anemic passing game? On the other
side, Steve McNair has taken all of the first team snaps this week, and is
there really any other player that plays better hurt than healthy?
The Ravens had an embarrassing loss to Oakland a few weeks ago, and came
back with a 35-0 pasting of Cleveland. Then they had an emotional 13-10
win over the Steelers last Sunday night. My rule of thumb will hold;
never pick the team that just had the emotional win.
How the Ravens can win: Hold McNair in check, and open holes for
Jamal Lewis. Neither will be easy.
Matt's Pick: Tennessee
Dallas at Carolina (-3)
Why: Two pretty good defenses squaring off in this one. These two teams
are already familiar with eachother, with Dallas beating Carolina in week
12 24-20 in Dallas. It's a fairly even matchup the whole way, but I think
the home field advantage for Carolina will put them over the top. That,
and Stephen Davis, who has been resting for the last few weeks in order to
be healthy for the playoffs. I think Carolina will learn from their
mistakes in the first game, and control the ball.
The Cowboys' offense has been anything but consistant through the whole
season. Carolina is the only team with a solid defense and an average
offense that they've really beaten; they got shut out by both Tampa Bay
and New England.
How the Cowboys can win: Quincy Carter must be on fire. He hasn't had a
great game in a long time.
Matt's Pick: Carolina
Seattle at Green Bay (-7)
Why: This one is almost a gimme. Seattle was 2-6 on the road this year,
with their second win coming last week at San Francisco, who had their
best player out with a broken collarbone. Green Bay has put up over 30 points
in their last four games, and both Brett Favre and Ahman Green have been
on fire. If the Green Bay attack gets going again, they're almost
impossible to beat in Lambeau.
You can't count Seattle out completely. Mike Holmgren knows his former
quarterback pretty well, which makes this an intriguing matchup.
Seattle's Shaun Alexander is one of the league's top running backs, and
can break a game open by himself. Green Bay's defense will be tested, but
their offense has too many weapons for Seattle.
How the Seahawks can win: Matt Hasselbeck must be on, and their receivers
need to establish the pass to give Alexander room to run.
Matt's Pick: Green Bay
Denver at Indianapolis (-3)
Why: This has the potential to be a great game. Jake Plummer came into
his own this year behind Denver's amazing offensive line. Both he and
Clinton Portis are healthy and ready to go after healing last week. The
Colts had the 20th rated rush defense this year; they will be lucky to
contain Portis. Remember that Portis was out in Week 16 when Denver just
beat down on the Colts.
The Colts have an amazing combination on offense of Manning, Harrison,
Wayne, James and Pollard. However, Denver has stopped them before, and
will look to do so again. The Colts lost to Denver by two touchdowns when
Denver's best player was hurt; can they fare much better with Portis back?
How the Colts can win: Ball control. Force Plummer to pass, force third
and long situations. In the game in week 16, Denver had the ball for 3
times as long as Indy did; the Colts can not have this happen again.
Matt's Pick: Denver
Ed Barnes, Staff Writer
Tennessee at Baltimore (-1)
I've gone back and forth on this game since the playoff matchups came out. Baltimore is red hot finishing the season 5-1 over their last 6 games. Tennessee is very good on all 3 sides of the football. However, the running game has been non-existent for the Titans this season, which puts even more pressure on the gimpy Steve McNair to carry the offensive load against one of the best defenses in the league.
Tennessee has a great defense too, leading the AFC by allowing just over 80 rushing yards a game. However, that statistic is misleading because of the Titans tendency to jump out to big leads, forcing teams to abandon the running game and throw the ball. The Titans rush defense will be exposed by the Ravens who will look to control the clock with the running game to keep McNair off the field.
Good thing for the Ravens this game is in Baltimore. When Anthony Wright has to take this team on the road, the outcome won't be good. But at home, against a banged up Titans team, I'll take my chances.
Ed's Pick: Ravens
Dallas at Carolina (-3)
The Panthers and Cowboys are two very similar teams that rely on their defenses and field position to win games. The Cowboys come in the healthier team with no significant injuries while the Panthers have several key players, including running back Stephen Davis, listed on the injury report. The Dallas D was able to hold Davis to 59 yards in a week 12 victory in big D, and the stout Cowboys run D will contain the ailing Davis.
In addition to being the healthier team, the numbers actually favor Dallas in this matchup, as Carolina has been horrible as a home favorite this year. The Panthers are 6-2 overall but only 2-6 against the spread at Ericcson Field this season. The Panthers are also the only team playing this weekend with a losing record against the spread.
Yes, I can't believe I'm going with Quincy Carter on the road in the playoffs. Then again, the way this season is going, I'm really taking a Bill Parcells' team.
Ed's Pick: Cowboys
Seattle at Green Bay (-7)
Why wouldn't you take the Pack in this game? It seems like nothing can go wrong for the team even with the passing of Brett Favre's father. Now, these lopsided victories came at the expense of the hapless Raiders and a bunch of Denver's backups, but that's not all the Pack has going for them. Green Bay lost a home playoff game for the first time in franchise history last season when Michael Vick ran wild. The Packers also beat the Seahawks 35-13 at Lambeau in week 5.
Seattle just won its second road game of the season, beating the Niners 24-17 last Saturday. Their only other road victory was a 38-0 drubbing of the Arizona Cardinals in week 2. The Seahawks have played better in their own right over the final 3 weeks of the season but too many factors are against Mike Holmgren heading into Green Bay and coming out with a victory.
Ed's Pick: Packers. Big.
Denver at Indianapolis (-3)
That was quite a thrashing suffered by Indy at the hands of the Broncos just a few weeks ago. Quentin Griffin and Mike Anderson ran wild over the supposedly stronger and more physical Colt D. The Broncos held on to the ball for almost 45 minutes of the game and didn't give Peyton Manning much of a chance to establish any kind of rhythm.
Despite my other picks, it's tough to beat a team twice in a season. Especially twice in three weeks, both times on the road. I think this task will be too much for Denver, as Peyton Manning will get his hands on the ball much more often during this game.
Clinton Portis missed the final two games of the regular season with a high ankle sprain. That injury tends to be a nagging injury and Portis probably won't be 100% for this matchup.
As a group, the Colts have too much to lose with another sub-par playoff performance. After the 41-0 loss to the Jets last year and the Manning/Idiot-Kicker off-season feud, Indy won't waste another solid regular season like they have in seasons past.
Ed's Pick: Colts
Philip Delyani, Special Guest
Tennessee at Baltimore (-1)
These teams know each other well, before Baltimore moved to the AFC north. For Tennessee it is the same old story. They scored 30+ points eight times this season, including against the formidable New England defense. However, that offense is dependent on McNair, who is nursing lower leg injuries (anyone believe he only has a twisted ankle?). The Tennessee defense plays the run well, which of course is essential when playing Baltimore. Wright won't win a playoff game on his own, but if they can get Lewis to break through the Tennessee defense, they have a shot. Add to that the Baltimore defense, which will be salivating over an injured McNair, who will be unable to beat them on one leg.
Philip's pick: Baltimore 20 Tennessee 13
Dallas at Carolina (-3)
Who would have thought at the beginning of the season that either of these teams would have made the playoffs? Parcells continues his coaching mystique, especially in his motivation of Carter to play within himself. Unfortunately, no amount of motivation seems to give them a decent running game. That is where Carolina has the edge. Davis with an ankle will still make Parcells reminisce about Otis Anderson. He knows defense and a pounding running game is what wins in the second season. He has the defense, but not the running game. Carolina has both, and that will move them on to next week.
Philip's pick: Carolina 27 Dallas 12
Seattle at Green Bay (-7)
So last year I went completely for the Lambeau advantage, and Mike Vick showed he is not just the greatest show on turf. This year, I'm going with the field and Favre again. Hasselbeck is not Vick, and even Holmgren won't be able to give him enough of an advantage to get the win. Green Bay is the more balanced team on both sides of the ball. They can beat you running or passing, and they have the defense to slow down Alexander. Favre is playing like a man on a mission, as he knows his playing days are numbered despite his superhuman consecutive starts streak. Add to that the recent passing of his father, and the game he had that week, and Green Bay beats its old coach on the frozen tundra.
Philip's pick: Green Bay 35 Seattle 17
Denver at Indianapolis (-3)
This is the one game that will probably shock people and be a defensive struggle. Both teams are better known for their offensive weapons — Manning, Portis, Harrison, Plummer — but this will be no shoot out. Both defenses know that the one that avoids giving up the big play wins this game. The thing to watch is which Denver teams shows. When they're running on all cylinders, they're as good as any team in the playoffs. Dungy has done the best with what he had to work with in revamping the Indianapolis defense, but the edge has to go to the Denver offensive line and Portis. Denver isn't finding every sleeper 1000-yard rusher in drafts, they just control the line of scrimmage and win the battles in the trenches. Indianapolis is a dangerous offense, even if James has allegedly lost a step, and they can score in bunches. Unfortunately they are matched up with the defense that beat them week 16, and there's no re-tooling the offense at this point.
Philip's pick: Denver 17 Indianapolis 14
|
