2005 Major League Baseball Preview: National League West
The National League West has plenty of new faces in new places entering 2005. From the Arizona Diamondbacks and Los Angeles Dodgers who overpaid free agents to the San Francisco Giants who got older to get better, the division looks to be a three team race much like last year.
The Giants entered 2004 as a slight favorite but this year are much better than the rest of the division on paper. However, expect the Padres and Dodgers to keep the division competitive like it has consistently been of late. The Rockies and Diamondbacks should find themselves in the rear view mirror of the division front runners early and should fade from view early in the 2nd half.
The winner of the division will be the team that can answer two questions that face most teams every season. Which team can stay healthy and which team can take all of its new faces and integrate them into a cohesive unit.
| 2004 Final Standings | ||||
| Team | Wins | Losses | Games Back | Games Improved |
| Los Angeles | 93 | 69 | — | +8 |
| San Francisco | 91 | 71 | 2 | -9 |
| San Diego | 87 | 75 | 6 | +23 |
| Colorado | 68 | 94 | 25 | -6 |
| Arizona | 51 | 111 | 42 | -33 |
Predicted Final Standings
* indicates player was signed on a minor league contract in the off-season.
Last year the Arizona Diamondbacks became an expansion team again. Not literally, but if you look at the group on the field by the end of the season, the Snakes looked much closer to their inaugural team than the one that won the World Series not long ago.
General Manager Joe Garagiola Jr. has been aggressive in the off-season to upgrade the level of talent in Arizona. However, like the Dodgers, Garagiola Jr. appears to have overpaid for several of his players. The huge contracts give to a pitcher in decline like Russ Ortiz and sluggers with shoulder problems like Troy Glaus and Shawn Green seem like desperate moves from a man anxious to please his fan base.
The Diamondbacks should be better this year with the infusion of veteran talent, but teams thrown together with no real core rarely seem to play to their potential. If injuries or underachievement are the story for the Diamondbacks in 2005, Garagiola Jr. could be looking for a new job.
| Rotation | Brandon Webb, Javier Vazquez and Russ Ortiz give the team a competent 1-3 of the rotation with Shawn Estes filling the 4th spot. The 5th spot is very much up for grabs between guys like Mike Gosling and Edgar Gonzalez. These starters shouldn't scare too many people even if they face one of the top 3 starters. However, expect Vazquez to bounce back in ‘05. |
| Middle Relief | The D-Backs suffered several injuries last year and the bullpen was one of the hardest hit areas. A lot of the success of the pen will depend on whether relievers like Jose Valverde and Oscar Villarreal can recover from arm injuries . |
| Closer | The closers spot is up for grabs right now with candidates including Valverde and Greg Aquino who held the role late last year. |
| Infield | The addition of Glaus improves the infield and the defense should be greatly improved with the addition of Counsell and Clayton. However, the arrival of those two players blocks kids like Alex Cintron, Scott Hairston and Matt Kata. This team isn't winning the division anyway so why not give some kids a chance to develop? |
| Outfield | Luis Gonzalez should be somewhat recovered from Tommy John surgery and that will aid him defensively. Offensively he should continue to be a solid contributor. Shawn Green will have to show whether he can continue the fine form he showed in the 2nd half of last year. |
| Bench Depth | Players like Hairston, Cintron and Kata should make up the bench and should get occasional starts as manager Bob Melvin has to get the kids some at-bats somehow. |
| Prospect Watch | Many of the Diamondbacks top prospects saw time with the big club last year thanks to all the injuries. However, many of these same prospects are now blocked by the new additions. Young pitchers like Aquino and Brian Bruney could get a shot, but expect the team to largely stick with veterans until it falls out of contention. That should be fairly early in the year though. |
Post-season moves: C
Team grade: C-
Prediction: 4th in division (73-89)
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Finally, the Colorado Rockies are actually rebuilding. For years General Manager Dan O'Dowd tried to implement several different approaching to winning at Coors Field. Each time the plan was ditched after a year or two. Now all of the big free agent contracts O'Dowd gave to players like Mike Hampton and Denny Neagle are coming back to haunt the Rockies. This year Colorado will go with their kids and see what they have in the organization while they get out from under those horrific contracts.
Right now Colorado's roster is the youngest in the majors with an average age of 26 years old. Only four players on the current roster are over the age of 30, and two of them are catchers that will back up youngster J.D. Closser.
The Rockies should struggle this year, especially with all of the young players that will receive significant playing time. However, this is the right approach for the Rockies to take. For the first time in the organization's history, the team is actually going to try and develop a core of homegrown players instead of bringing in a group of free agents every year. Once the Rockies have paid off those lingering big contracts, they will know which of their prospects can play and which can't. Then they can add to their team from there. So far Rockies GM, O'Dowd's best moves have been the ones he hasn't made.
| Rotation | It's the Rockies. Their rotation is always a mess. The only interesting thing to watch will be the performance of rookie Jeff Francis. Francis was Baseball America's minor league player of the year in 2004 and it will be interesting to see how he copes with a full season at high altitude. Shawn Chacon moves back to the starting rotation after a failed year as the closer. |
| Middle Relief | The Rockies bullpen will end up with an ERA around 5 just like they do every year. The names change but the results never do. |
| Closer | Rookie Chin-Hui Tsao is being converted from starter to closer after Shawn Chacon failed miserably as the Rockies closer in 2004. Tsao has great stuff but has had health problems. The Rockies hope this move can keep him and his surgically repaired arm healthy. |
| Infield | Todd Helton will continue to mash, but the thing to watch is the development of the rest of the infield. Aaron Miles, Clint Barmes and Garrett Atkins should fill out the infield and could prove to be in Colorado for years to come. Or for Atkins, until 3B prospect Ian Stewart is ready. J.D. Closser could be a rookie of the year candidate with the offensive numbers he'll put up at Coors. |
| Outfield | Matt Holliday was a nice surprised for the Rockies last year and in 2005 Colorado will look to give Dustan Mohr and Jorge Piedra time in the outfield. Preston Wilson will return and the Rockies hope he can show enough before the trade deadline to be moved for more prospects. |
| Bench Depth | The bench should include guys like catchers Charles Johnson and Todd Greene, OF's Choo Freeman and Jorge Piedra. The younger guys on the bench should see plenty of starts as manager Clint Hurdle wants to see what the kids can do. |
| Prospect Watch | Francis, Atkins and Barmes should get plenty of playing time this year with other prospects like Piedra and Freeman getting starts as well. The Rockies will run out plenty of players this year. |
Post-season moves: C – They didn't do anything, but didn't get worse like they usually do
Team grade: D-
Prediction: 5th in division (66-96)
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Fans of the Padres are disappointed about the way that this off-season has gone. Not only did the team lose David Wells to the Red Sox, General Manager Kevin Towers admittedly overpaid for outfielder Dave Roberts. However, there are several reasons for Padres fans to be optimistic going into 2005.
After playing a full season at Petco Park, Padres hitters know what to expect when playing home games. Ryan Klesko, who had a disappointing 2004, said he has changed his swing to hit more line drives and fewer fly balls. As a whole, the team has talked about utilizing Petco's big gaps and not worrying about hitting the ball out of the ballpark. This approach should be more conducive to success at home. On the other hand, the Friars were second in the National League in runs scored on the road.
The offense will be the biggest question mark, as the pitching staff looks like it will be reliable. The most important thing that the Padres must do is take advantage of opportunities presented to them. In the first half of 2004, San Diego was incredibly fortunate in terms of catching teams while they were on bad streaks or missing an opposing team's ace. If the Friars get and can take advantage of those breaks this year, they will contend for the division crown.
| Rotation | Jake Peavy leads a rotation that is set entering spring training. Last year's MLB ERA leader looks to build on a breakout 2004 by at least coming close to last year's numbers. Woody Williams and Brian Lawrence are inning eaters who should be at or above .500. Adam Eaton could be the X-Factor for the staff. He has tremendous stuff, but hasn't been able to harness it yet. While he could break out in 2005, nothing in his numbers suggest that is coming. Padre fans must hope the light comes on for him soon. Darrell May should be the 5th starter and probably will be good at home and mediocre at best on the road as he'll make use of the extra space at Petco. |
| Middle Relief | The bullpen was one of the strengths of the Padres last year as San Diego posted the 8th best bullpen ERA in baseball. The emergence of Scott Linebrink and Akinori Otsuka as reliable set up men clearly defines the roles for the rest of the pen. Chris Hammond and Blaine Neal will pitch in middle relief with Dennys Reyes likely the long man. Expect this group to pick up where they left off last season. |
| Closer | Trevor Hoffman looked better in 2004 than he did in the few years prior to it. The shoulder operation that cost him most of 2003 was a great success as Hoffman got back a few miles per hour on his fastball making his great changeup even better. Hoffman should save at least 40 games again in 2005. |
| Infield | Phil Nevin, Mark Loretta and Khalil Greene should provide plenty of production from their respective positions. Sean Burroughs is the big question mark. Burroughs must hit for more power this year after having only 27 extra base hits in 2004. |
| Outfield | Brian Giles and Ryan Klesko should be above average run producers in 2005. After a full off-season of conditioning, look for Klesko to bounce back this year. Roberts must stay healthy and not wear down after the all-star break to make Towers look smart for acquiring him. |
| Bench Depth | Eric Young, Xavier Nady, Mark Sweeney and Miguel Ojeda will provide good depth for the Padres in 2005. Sweeney is proven as a pinch hitter while Young and Nady will both be able to play multiple positions. Geoff Blum should have the other bench spot as a backup infielder. |
| Prospect Watch | Justin Germano and Tim Stauffer should be the first two minor league pitchers to get a call if a replacement is needed. Nady has been considered a prospect for years now, but finally should get significant playing time this year. Speedy outfielder Freddy Guzman should start the year at Triple-A while top prospect Josh Barfield shouldn't see the big league club until rosters expand in September. |
Post-season moves: C-
Team grade: B
Prediction: 2nd in division (85-77)
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General Manager Brian Sabean truly believes that age is nothing but a number and his roster reflects it. The average age of his projected starting lineup is 36 years old. That's an age that used to be considered ancient in the baseball world, but the Giants have been able to make effective use of veteran players over the past decade of success.
Think about the array of older players that the Giants have been able to coax successful seasons out of. Ellis Burks, Charlie Hayes, Stan Javier and Benito Santiago all come to mind. The Giants have embraced the philosophy to a greater extent this off-season with the signings of Moises Alou, Omar Vizquel, Mike Matheny and Armando Benitez with an average age of 35 among them.
Why bring in players that are obviously toward the end of their career? It's all because of Barry Bonds. The Giants window of opportunity to win with baseball's greatest offensive force will close in two years and Sabean knows it.
In this veteran group the Giants managed to address their biggest flaws from the 2004. Vizquel and Matheny will greatly improve the Giants defense and Benitez is a proven closer who should convert several of the 28 save opportunities blown by San Francisco's bullpen last year. Alou provides protection for Bonds that hasn't been present since Jeff Kent left the Bay Area for Houston.
The overall age of the team makes health the biggest concern for the Giants entering the 2005 season. However, the health of Bonds and perennial All-Star Jason Schmidt is [OK] the biggest concern. Bonds underwent knee surgery in the off-season and Schmidt had problems with a balky groin in 2004. If both of these players can remain healthy for the entire season, San Francisco should be the class of the division.
| Rotation | The Giants were 8th in MLB in starters ERA last year. If Jason Schmidt stays healthy for the entire campaign, expect that number to get even better. Brett Tomko was a nice surprised last year and Kirk Rueter seems to always find a way to win games. Jerome Williams pitched well between injuries last year, but has to find a way to put a full season together. Noah Lowry was excellent after his promotion to the big club last season and the Giants hope he can continue his success in 2005. |
| Middle Relief | There are some open slots in the Giants bullpen. Matt Herges, Jim Brower, Scott Eyre and Jason Christiansen will been in the pen with several others competing for the other couple of spots. Regardless of who wins the other jobs, the Giants pen should be better than last season just because people will be in roles they are better suited for. The big concern is wear and tear after Felipe Alou went to the bullpen a ton last season. |
| Closer | Benitez gives the Giants a true closer, something they haven't had since Robb Nen was last healthy in 2002. His presence should mean at least five wins. |
| Infield | While there are questions marks about the infield at each position, the Giants should get good production out of their infield. J.T. Snow won't hit like last year, but saves plenty of runs with his glove. Ray Durham has to find a way to stay healthy as the Giants offense is much better with him at the top of the lineup. Omar Vizquel is a nice addition for his defense and bat control and slots in nicely as the #2 hitter. Edgardo Alfonzo still catches anything within reach but is in decline offensively. By midseason he could be sitting in favor of Pedro Feliz who broke out last year with 22 HR and 84 RBI. |
| Outfield | The average age of the outfield is almost 39 years old, but it shouldn't matter. This is a talented group. Bonds will be his incredibly productive self and will largely save himself while in the field. Marquis Grissom keeps on chugging along and manages to make enough adjustments to still be effective. Moises Alou will be overmatched in SBC Park's spacious right field, but he was brought to San Francisco for his bat and not his glove. Offensively this group will be very good, but their defense as a group is a big question mark. |
| Bench Depth | The Giants have more options on the bench than in years past as Deivi Cruz, Michael Tucker and Pedro Feliz should get frequent starts to rest the older regulars. Yorvit Torrealba is a solid backup catcher and rookie Jason Ellison should make the team as another reserve outfield who can be a defensive replacement late in games. |
| Prospect Watch | The Giants haven't developed a position player for quite awhile but the organization continues to develop pitching. Pitchers Jesse Foppert, Merkin Valdez, Kevin Correia and Brad Hennessey all have seen time in the big leagues and could be called upon if injuries strike. However, the Giants best pitching prospect is Matt Cain who is probably a year away from the big leagues. The Giants position prospects shouldn't be much of a factor in 2005. |
Post-season moves: A
Team grade: B+
Prediction: 1st in division (93-69)
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Since his hiring as Dodgers General Manager, Paul DePodesta has completely turned over the roster in dramatic fashion. After assembling a roster that took the Dodgers to their first playoff appearance since 1988, DePodesta continued his reshaping of the team by replacing several of the key members of last season's ball club.
The true effectiveness of DePodesta's statistical analysis will be seen this season. Many of the players signed this off-season seem, on paper, like downgrades. J.D. Drew has had only had one season where he has stayed healthy. Derek Lowe's ERA was 5.42 last season. Jose Valentin struck out 139 times in 450 at-bats last year. Jeff Kent seems like he will not be as effective playing half his games in Dodgers Stadium instead of Minute Maid Park.
However, DePodesta insists that the numbers add up for this group of newcomers to be as productive as last year's core. Still, this team will have to prove on the field that they are as good or better than last season. If the Dodgers are in contention, then maybe the Los Angeles media will finally get off DePodesta's back. However, if the Dodgers falter this year, Bill Plaschke and T.J. Simers will spend many a column wondering why last year's division winner was broken up.
| Rotation | This is the strength of the Dodgers. Jeff Weaver, Odalis Perez, Brad Penny, Lowe and Wilson Alvarez should keep the Dodgers in a lot of games although Lowe won't have the 2nd best run support in MLB this year. Penny could be the key as his problematic right arm has to hold up as pitching is what will win games this season. |
| Middle Relief | The Dodgers return most of last season's bullpen that ranked 2nd in MLB in bullpen ERA. However, LA will be without Guillermo Mota for the entire season and must have big years from Yhency Brazoban and Duaner Sanchez in order to get leads to Gagne. |
| Closer | Eric Gagne is the best closer in the game right now. He needs to maintain his level of performance and protect almost every lead for the offensively challenged Dodger to contend. |
| Infield | This group won't be nearly as productive as last year's starting infield either offensively and defensively. Losing Beltre and Cora's defense at their respective positions could be magnified, especially with the arrival of a groundball pitcher like Lowe. Also, Choi must show he can be productive for an entire season instead of just before the all-star break. The catching position will be an offensive black hole. |
| Outfield | All three starting outfielders are big question marks entering this year. Jayson Werth has an elbow injury, so his health is a big concern. Dodger fans have to be scared of the 5-year $55 million contract Drew signed. Same length and dollar amount as Darren Dreifort, another oft injured Scott Boras client who had a healthy contract year. Milton Bradley's temper leads to concerns about frequent suspensions. |
| Bench Depth | Other than adding Ricky Ledee, the Dodgers bench is none too impressive. Olmedo Saenz will get occasional starts against lefties and Jason Grabowski will spot start and pinch hit, but the Dodgers are thin beyond their starting lineup other than youngsters |
| Prospect Watch | The Dodgers farm system is healthy with several strong pitching prospects. P Edwin Jackson should see time in Los Angeles this year and OF Cody Ross and IF Antonio Perez could break camp with the big club. Navarro should get a look in the spring as a catcher but most likely will start the year in Triple-A. |
Post-season moves: C+
Team grade: C+
Prediction: 3rd in division (82-80)
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| 2005 Predicted Standings | ||||
| Team | Wins | Losses | Games Back | Games Improved |
| San Francisco | 93 | 69 | — | +2 |
| San Diego | 85 | 77 | 6 | -2 |
| Los Angeles | 82 | 80 | 9 | -11 |
| Arizona | 73 | 89 | 20 | +22 |
| Colorado | 66 | 96 | 27 | -2 |
File last modified March 13, 2005
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