By Brian Wilmer, Senior Staff Writer
MLB Preview: American League West
The AL West was arguably baseball's best division in 2002, and nothing seems to have taken place in the offseason that would prevent that from happening in 2003. This division is replete with young talent, and should be further bolstered by the expected resurgence of the Texas Rangers. The West features three new managers (Ken Macha in Oakland, Bob Melvin in Seattle, and Buck Showalter in Texas).
There is also a bumper crop of future stars in the West, with Mark Teixeira and Hank Blalock (and possibly Drew Meyer) in Texas; Esteban German, Joe Valentine and Jason Grabowski in Oakland, and Robb Quinlan and Bobby Jenks in Anaheim. There should be no further question as to the best division in baseball — it is the AL West.
Three teams have the potential to win the West, and the fourth (Texas) will contend in 2004, if not this year. Keep an eye on this division, as it will produce the World Series winner in 2003.
Let's take a look at the West.
Predicted Final Standings
* indicates player was signed on a minor league contract in the off-season.
| Texas Rangers |
| Finished 4th in division, 10th in league, 23rd overall
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| Marquee Players for 2003 |
SS Alex Rodriguez (.300-57-142)
1B Rafael Palmeiro (.273-43-105) |
| Good Additions | Bad Additions | Notable Losses |
Ugueth Urbina, P
Esteban Yan, P
Aaron Fultz, P
John Thomson, P
Ismael Valdes, P
Ruben Sierra*, OF
Einar Diaz, C
Ryan Drese, P
Buck Showalter, Manager
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UT Frank Catalanotto
OF Todd Hollandsworth
C Ivan Rodriguez
1B Travis Hafner |
Will anyone recognize this Texas team when it takes the field in early April? One of the franchise's icons (Pudge) has left for Florida. One of its grittiest players (Catalanotto) is in Toronto. Buck Showalter has left the comfortable confines of Bristol University for the searing heat of Arlington. The less recognizable this team is, the better.
This team has been marred by overspending and underachieving for several years, and last year endured another blowup by John Rocker, a potentially career-ending injury for Rusty Greer, and several off-the-field problems. Will Showalter turn the team around? Only time will answer that question. He has, however, helped address the team's most pressing need: the complete lack of guys in the rotation and bullpen that can get outs.
| Rotation |
Chan Ho Park, innings-eater Ismael Valdes, John Thomson (a favorite of the ContractBud.com staff), and two of the three between Colby Lewis, Joaquin Benoit, and Ryan Drese make up the selections. Drese is a power pitcher who enjoyed reasonable success for a pretty bad Cleveland team last year, and Benoit is a guy with good movement and decent location. Lewis throws extremely hard, but needs to work on control (26 BB in 34.1 MLB innings in 2002).
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| Middle Relief |
This is one of the most improved areas of the team. The loser of the fifth starter derby winds up here, as well as Esteban Yan (who should perform considerably better now that he does not have to close), Rob Bell, Francisco Cordero (another nice live young arm), and Todd Van Poppel are among the multitude of bullpen options available to Showalter. Once Jeff Zimmerman returns from injury, he should fit in nicely here, as well.
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| Closer |
Ugueth Urbina has enjoyed time as a top closer in the big leagues, and could again return, given the right instruction. Urbina has seemed to lose some of his zip on his fastball and some of his bulldog mentality coming out of the pen. If he can regain some of that form, he could close out what leads the Rangers do get him in the ninth.
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| Infield |
Einar Diaz (much like Dan Wilson in the decent average, great fielder category), Rafael Palmeiro, Mike Young, Alex Rodriguez, and the three-headed third base monster compose a relatively solid infield. Mark Teixeira absolutely rakes the baseball, and will be manning the hot corner in Texas soon enough, if not out of 2003 camp. Hank Blalock was a much-ballyhooed prospect in the 2002 Ranger camp, but he sputtered out of the gate and never really regained any sort of form. The x-factor is Herbert Perry, an unheralded but solid veteran. Should Showalter choose to give Teixeira more seasoning, Perry provides a nice half-season option at the third sack.
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| Outfield |
Doug Glanville came over from Philadelphia in the offseason, and tends to be either really bad or somewhat serviceable, which explains his absence from the transactions list above. He may play some left field and lead off, because Kevin Mench is no leadoff hitter. One is left to ponder if the thought of signing Rickey Henderson to lead off for one year ever crossed anyone's mind in Texas. The highly-enigmatic Carl Everett and Juan Gonzalez round out the outfield in Texas.
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| DH |
Ruben Sierra looks to hold this job, but could be challenged by the loser of the third-base derby. Sierra has enjoyed a fairly good latter part of his career, but should not be confused for Tony Gwynn or Sammy Sosa.
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| Bench Depth |
Glanville provides decent outfield depth and speed off the bench, while Mike Lamb, Todd Greene, and Marshall McDougall also provide extra firepower off the pine.
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Post-season moves: A
Team grade: B-
Prediction: Fourth in division (81-81)
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| Seattle Mariners |
| Finished 3rd in division, 6th in league, 9th overall (tie)
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| Marquee Players for 2003 |
| OF Ichiro Suzuki (.321-8-51, 31 SB) |
| Good Additions | Bad Additions | Notable Losses |
Randy Winn, OF
Jamey Wright*, P
Bob Melvin, Manager
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Greg Colbrunn, 1B
John Mabry, UT
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IF Desi Relaford
OF Ruben Sierra |
I started the offseason feeling a little better about this team than I do at the present time. This was a Mariner team that seemed to sputter to the closing gate last year, unlike the 2001 Mariner club that seemed to be dominant in every facet. Of course, what better way to revive a faltering franchise than by getting older? The additions of Greg Colbrunn and John Mabry to the Mariner bench make them an even slower and older ballclub, and that's a really bad sign in the same division as Oakland, Anaheim, and a possibly resurgent Texas club.
The bottom line is that this Seattle team has to hit the baseball, and I simply don't see the offensive weapons there that can bail out this team. They should have another reasonably good year, but I don't see them competing for their division.
| Rotation |
Jamie Moyer (age 40), Freddy Garcia (a borderline marquee guy, but still has delivery issues), Joel Pineiro (a truly impressive young arm that locates well and gets outs), Ryan Franklin (a converted middle reliever), and Rafael Soriano (solid young pitcher, but his stamina may be a question) will start for this club. Spots one-three look rather solid, but the back two could present problems.
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| Middle Relief |
Shigetoshi Hasegawa, Jeff Nelson and Arthur Rhodes are the cornerstone of this part of the staff. Competing for the remaining bullpen spots are a surgically-repaired Gil Meche, Devil Rays castoff Steve Kent, former Brewer, Cardinal, and Rocky Jamey Wright and a cast of relative unknowns.
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| Closer |
Kazuhiro Sasaki remains a quality closer despite falling off slightly during the 2002 campaign. Getting leads to Sasaki in the ninth will be the challenge for this ballclub.
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| Infield |
Ben Davis will platoon with Dan Wilson at the catcher position. Davis is all-hit, little-field, and Wilson is all-field, little-hit. The infield will be rounded out by John Olerud at first, Bret Boone at second, the underrated Carlos Guillen at short, and the abyssmal Jeff Cirillo at third. Cirillo has declined offensively over the last few years, and could not even produce in Colorado. He leaves little hope that he will improve this year, and the Mariners may be forced to eat the remainder of his deal.
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| Outfield |
Mike Cameron, Randy Winn, and Ichiro make up a fairly solid outfield. Winn and Ichiro are both speedy slap hitters with occasional pop, and Cameron is a swing-for-the-downs hitter who tends to go through rather pronounced hard times at the plate. In the running to back these men up are Mabry, former University of Miami quarterback Kenny Kelly, and Mark McLemore.
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| DH |
The ever-fragile Edgar Martinez mans the designated hitter position in Seattle, and should be good for another consistent year at the plate — whether that is consistently injured or consistently hitting the baseball remains to be seen.
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| Bench Depth |
Mabry, Colbrunn, and McLemore provide valuable veteran bats off the bench, as long as they are not relied upon to carry major roles in the offense. The loss of Desi Relaford, while relatively without fanfare, will be a key one to watch, as former Rule V draftee Luis Ugueto will be expected to fill in at multiple infield spots, and showed very little with the bat last year.
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Post-season moves: C
Team grade: B-
Prediction: Third in division (89-73)
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| Anaheim Angels |
| Finished 2nd in division, 3rd in league, 4th overall
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| Marquee Players for 2003 |
OF Garret Anderson (.306-29-123)
3B Troy Glaus (.250-30-111)
P Jarrod Washburn (18-6, 3.15) |
| Good Additions | Bad Additions | Notable Losses |
Eric Owens, OF
Rich Rodriguez*, P
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Orlando Palmeiro, OF
Alex Ochoa, OF
Al Levine, P
Dennis Cook, P |
The 2002 World Champion Anaheim Angels open camp in 2003 with very little turnover (which is good) and very little outfield bench depth (which is not so good). Orlando Palmeiro and Alex Ochoa both left Anaheim, and Palmeiro has surfaced in St. Louis with his fellow 2002 Angel Al Levine. Assuming that no darkhorse candidates make the team and no further signings are made, the Angels are left with Shawn Wooten (a former catcher) and Brad Fullmer (a man who makes Dave Kingman look like a Gold Glover) as outfield backups.
That said, the main strength of Anaheim's team is their pitching staff. That returns mostly intact this year, with the baseball equivalent of the No-Name Defense on the mound in southern California. This staff was the main catalyst behind the defeat of the Giants in the World Series last fall, and it appears to be as strong — if not more so — this year. The Angel bullpen outshines the bullpen in Oakland, but will that be enough to get them an AL West crown? Unless they improve their bench, the Angels will again be forced to win it all as a wildcard.
| Rotation |
Jarrod Washburn and John Lackey are two wonderful top-of-the-roto guys with solid location and a nice ability to get outs without the ball being hammered. Washburn should equal his 18-win performance from 2002, and Lackey has 15-17 within his sights. Ramon Ortiz still has a strong fastball and moves the ball around exceptionally well. Ortiz, believe it or not, was 15-9 with a 3.77 ERA last year, and ran up those numbers in a reasonably unheralded fashion. Ortiz is also a viable fantasy option, as he records a lot of strikeouts (6.71 per 9 last year, highest of any Angel starter), and wins quite a few ballgames. Aaron Sele and Kevin Appier provide steady help at the end of the rotation, and a veteran presence that helps to steady the still-maturing arms in the rotation and bullpen. Both men should be good for 12-14 wins and a lot of innings eaten.
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| Middle Relief |
If Scot Shields heads north with the team, he likely winds up in a middle relief spot. Aside from Shields, the bullpen is one of the true selling points of the team, with Scott Schoeneweis, Brendan Donnelly, Ben Weber, and Francisco Rodriguez just a few of the compelling options available to Mike Scioscia in the set-up innings. Also, keep an eye on Bobby Jenks if he makes this squad.
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| Closer |
What is left to say about Troy Percival? This man has truly established himself as an elite closer, and has left no reason to believe that he has lost anything off his fastball and slider. Look for another wonderful season from Percival this year, assuming he stays healthy. If not, Rodriguez becomes your closer, and he may be even better than Percival, given time.
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| Infield |
The Molinas (Bengie and Jose), Spiezio, Kennedy, Eckstein, and Glaus make up the infield in Anaheim. Both Molinas are wonderful "catch and throw" guys behind the plate, with Jose possibly having the edge throwing the baseball. Both will contribute occasionally with the bat, and that is fine for the lower parts of the lineup. There is serious power potential from the first, second, and third basemen, and a top-20 OBP man in Eckstein at short.
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| Outfield |
Garret Anderson, Darin Erstad, and Tim Salmon give the Angels the best outfield in the AL West, and probably one of the top five in baseball. All three men are perennial run producers, and Salmon finally having a relatively healthy year under his belt showed us all that he can still hit.
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| DH |
Brad Fullmer has this spot locked down, and with the quality (or lack thereof) of his glove, he should be a natural there. Fullmer enjoyed a career renaissance of sorts last year, and should be good for another .280-20-70 year.
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| Bench Depth |
This is the question mark for this ballclub. The loser of the Molina catching derby, Shawn Wooten, Benji Gil (a solid backup at multiple positions), Eric Owens, and Chone Figgins make up the likely competitors for bench jobs. A man to keep an eye on in camp is Robb Quinlan, an outfielder with an extremely explosive bat.
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Post-season moves: C
Team grade: A
Prediction: Second in division (94-68)
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| Oakland Athletics |
| Finished 1st in division, 2nd in league, 2nd overall
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| Marquee Players for 2003 |
SS Miguel Tejada (.308-34-131)
3B Eric Chavez (.275-34-109)
P Barry Zito (23-5, 2.75 ERA) |
| Good Additions | Bad Additions | Notable Losses |
Erubiel Durazo, 1B
Keith Foulke, P
Chris Singleton, OF
Mark Johnson, C
Joe Valentine, P
Ken Macha, Manager
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Ray Durham, 2B
Cory Lidle, P
Billy Koch, P
David Justice, OF |
I still cannot see how Billy Beane does it. He continues to assemble contenders year after year, all the while maintaining a minuscule payroll, by league standards. He took last year's 103-win team and reshaped (rebuilt is not really the word) it into a similar style of team, but with different parts. He added this year's "it" player, Erubiel Durazo, as another left-handed corner infield masher. He also managed to get a closer for the one year remaining on his contract (Foulke) while grooming the potential closer of the future (Valentine).
This year's Oakland team looks to be an extremely fun club to watch, and may finally get their return trip to the World Series. Add new manager Ken Macha to the mix, a man with whom the Athletics players are extremely comfortable, and who should provide more discipline to this young ballclub than did Art Howe, and all the makings of a pennant winner appear to be in place.
| Rotation |
Anchored by Cy Young winner Barry Zito, this rotation is a rather devastating unit. Mark Mulder and Tim Hudson follow Zito to give the A's three of the top five starters in the AL. Ted Lilly should occupy the fourth slot (unbelievably, he is still only 27 years old), and will provide a nice change of pace from the hard-throwing aces ahead of him. The fifth starter will either be Erik Hiljus or Aaron Harang. Harang looked rather nice in a quasi-audition last year, and should make the club either way.
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| Middle Relief |
The loser of the fifth starter competition goes here, along with Ricardo Rincon, rule-5 draftee Buddy Hernandez, Jim Mecir, John Halama, Chad Bradford, and Valentine.
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| Closer |
Keith Foulke is your man of the hour...at least until he becomes a free agent next year and is deemed unaffordable. Valentine will be groomed to take over this job, and should be quite good.
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| Infield |
Ramon Hernandez is the bat, Mark Johnson the glove behind the plate. Johnson should caddy for at least one pitcher, and will be a solid late-inning defensive replacement. Otherwise, the infield shapes up as Durazo/Ellis/Tejada/Chavez. The aforementioned corner-infield mashers and Tejada provide 30-HR capabilities from three of the four infield positions. Ellis is a solid top-of-the-lineup man who spends a lot of time on base and is great at moving runners along.
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| Outfield |
Terrence Long gets to move back to left, and hopefully will be able to hit the baseball again this year. His move to center in 2002 caused his average to dip to .240. Chris Singleton is a solid defensive center fielder, and will get some key hits through the year. Jermaine Dye is a solid five-tool outfielder who makes Braves and Royals executives cringe with every swing of the bat.
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| DH |
Scott Hatteberg likely gets to move back to a position to which he is more suited, and the lack of necessity in concentrating on a position may result in a numbers increase at the plate for Hatteberg. He gives the A's another left-handed power bat, which will be a key in a potential playoff series involving games in Yankee Stadium.
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| Bench Depth |
This is a bugaboo in Oakland, much like in Anaheim. Gone is John Mabry from last year's squad (which makes the Jeremy Giambi trade even more mind-boggling, considering both components in the trade have left their respective clubs), and left in his wake are a number of bench question marks. Frank Menechino and Adam Piatt are the only proven commodities on the Oakland bench, and this could possibly precipitate another first-round playoff exit if no moves are made by the deadline.
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Post-season moves: B+
Team grade: A
Prediction: First in division (97-65)
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File last modified May 15, 2011
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