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2005 Major League Baseball Season Predictions
Our predictions for the 2005 MLB Season, from Cy Young to biggest decline from 2004. Take a peek now!
Spring Training 2005 — #2
Ed Barnes journals his experience at the Padres spring training camp
Spring Training 2005 — #1
Ed Barnes journals his experience at the Padres spring training camp
2005 MLB Preview: NL Central
Predictions for the 2005 season and a review of each team in the division.

By Adam Conn, Founder

Six changes that baseball needs to make

In 1968, Bob Gibson had a remarkable 1.12 ERA with 13 shutouts and 28 complete games. Denny McLain won 31 games. Don Drysdale pitched 58 2/3 scoreless innings. Catfish Hunter threw a perfect game. Juan Marachial threw 30 complete games, winning 26 overall.

The next year found pitching mounds lowered from 15 inches to 10 inches, favoring the hitters. Baseball split into divisions, adding San Diego, Montreal, Kansas City, and the Seattle Pilots (again favoring hitters, since there are always more quality hitters than even passable pitchers).

With free agency consolidating quality veteran pitchers into fewer teams in a wider league, plus rules limiting pitchers effectiveness (narrowing the strike zone interpretation width-wise and shifting it higher into more batter's wheelhouses) pitching has been on a severe decline for over 30 years. Players wearing ridiculous body armor, and pitchers being admonished, ejected, and fined by major league baseball for throwing inside to players who hang over the plate takes away even more tools in the arsenal.

Pitchers, like batters, have been bulking up, whether naturally or not, and we've seen an increase in injuries. An injury to a pitcher is much more brutal career-wise than a batter. Because of the strain pitching puts on a body, even a small back twinge can affect effectiveness — even a one-inch difference in control means a ton. A small back twinge for a power hitter means they might not be able to drive the ball as far — so that 400-foot homer is only 350. While Tommy John surgery has revitalized a ton of pitchers' careers (often for the better, since they relearn how to throw safely afterwards, as mature adults, as well as use physical therapy rather than just the weight room), too often a pitcher's injury problems become chronic or at least severe enough to limit effectiveness and shorten the career.

Many folks, in their arguments to help pitchers, cite the increase in home runs, and such. But if you were a 16-year old kid with talent as a pitcher and a hitter, which way would you go? The lifespan of a pitcher, by the time they break into the bigs, isn't all that great. But a position player can last 10 years past their peak of effectiveness — Pat Borders getting traded for is a prime example, here. Given the amount of money at stake, there's more incentive for talented athletes to become fielders than pitchers.

Another trend that may permeate baseball's next generation may be the Moneyball philosophy. Billy Beane, Paul DePodesta, etc. now scour the college system for hitters with high on-base percentages and those who literally wear pitchers out by seeing more pitches. With most modern pitchers on a 100 pitch count, that could mean more five-inning or six-inning starts even from good performances! The more players who see seven pitch counts, the shorter you'll stay on the mound.

How do we solve these problems?
  • Raise the mound. Plain and simple, it will help curveball pitchers, especially in Colorado, as well as fastball pitchers. Noone disputes this. It will make home runs more meaningful, won't hurt great pitchers. Going from 10" back towards 15" will make a world of difference, but it should be at least 12".
  • Change the body armor rules. Pitchers are incredibly vulnerable, standing less than 60 feet from the batted ball when their motion is complete. But none wear armor. But let me make a radical suggestion that allows players like Craig Biggio and Barry Bonds keep their precious protection: any item that is not part of the standard team uniform, save for the catcher's protective gear, must be worn at all times during the course of the game. Want to wear that big pad on the elbow? Great. But you can't take it off until the game is over; you must wear it in the field and on the basepaths. Same goes for shinguards, footguards, etc. Batting gloves and batting helmets would be exempt. In a way, body armor already violates rule 1.11 relating to identical uniforms.
  • Enforce rule 6.06a. A batter is out for illegal action when he hits a ball with one or both feet on the ground entirely outside the batter's box. Can you remember the last time you saw the inside line in a batter's box? That's right, just before a Little League game. But by the third inning, even the hint of that line is gone. Too many umpires neglect calling a batter out for 6.06a. This rule could also be modified to state "one or both feet on the ground more than halfway outside the batter's box."

    Groundskeepers should be instructed to redraw the interior line (between innings if need be). Current rules allow for wet, unslaked lime, chalk or other white material — perhaps a more permanent batter's box material could be developed toward this purpose.
  • Change the batter's box. The batter's box needs to be an inch or two more removed from the plate. With armored players crowding the inside of the plate, let's give the pitchers a little more of the outside of the plate.
  • Ease the brushback rule. Yes, pitchers are throwing intentionally at batters. But the rule of automatic ejection after both benches are warned increases the chances that a pitcher who does try to intimidate and use the inside of the plate will get ejected simply by encouraging the other team to strike first. If I were going against the Pedro Martinez, no doubt I'd try to get both benches warned by throwing at his buddy Manny Ramirez. This rule is an impediment to reducing beanballs.
  • Have the umpires control the game. Rule 9 specifically grants the power to the umpire in chief for the Conduct of the Game, but too often the league has publically second-guessed the officiating crews (or crews have second-guessed themselves after the fact). Umpires need to assert control of the diamond from day one of spring training through the final game of the World Series. More umpires need to eject batters for attempting to "show them up" through histrionics at the plate. More umpires need to not grant "time" to batters who abuse the privilege granted in rule 6.02b and assume time will be granted. Too many of these batters use this to throw pitchers out of their rhythm. Let the pitchers and catchers control their flow, and let the umpire not let things get out of control.

Many others have called for similar rule changes, or for the elimnation of the designated hitter, widen home plate, soften the ball, restrict player salaries, restrict free agency, modify the bat rules. While each has merit, these would be perhaps too radical at this time to endure. The changes proposed above are adequate to raise the quality of pitching around the league in both the short and long term.

File last modified May 15, 2011


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