MLB Preview: American League East
Last season was about the Yankees' return to glory after a painful World
Series loss. Didn't happen. The Red Sox were supposed to make a run at
the division crown. Didn't happen. The Blue Jays were a good young team
that many thought would at leats get to .500. Didn't happen. The Orioles
were supposed to finish with close to 100 losses. That happened. The
Devil Rays... well, nothing was supposed to happen, and nothing did.
This year, the expectations are close to the same. The Yankees are,
again, expected to at least make it to the ALCS. The Red Sox are expected
to make another run at the division title, or, at least, the wild card.
The Blue Jays are still a decent young team, and should have a chance at
80 wins. The Orioles have helped themselves in the offseason, and should
challenge Toronto for 3rd in the division. The Devil Rays... well, let's
just say I feel bad for Lou Piniella.
Most of the teams have not been terribly busy in the off-season. The
Yankees have made some high-profile acquisitions, and the Orioles have
managed to quietly improve their club. As usual, though, this is a two
team race.
Predicted Final Standings
* indicates player was signed on a minor league contract in the off-season.
| Tampa Bay Devil Rays |
| Finished 5th in division, T-13th in league, T-29th overall |
| Marquee Players for 2003 |
1B Aubrey Huff (.313-23-59)
|
| Good Additions | Bad Additions | Notable Losses |
Travis Lee, 1B
Lou Piniella, Manager
Lee Stevens, 1B/OF
|
Marlon Anderson, 2B
Rey Ordonez, SS |
Randy Winn, OF
Esteban Yan, P
Steve Cox, 1B |
Ah, the downside to writing about the Yanks and BoSox is writing about the
Devil Rays. This team has done practically nothing right since its
inception. While there are a few bright spots in the organization, until
they all come together, this team is not moving from the cellar of the
A.L. East.
The pitching on this team is probably the worst in the majors. The staff
is "led" by Joe Kennedy, who would probably be a decent #3 starter on most
teams. It doesn't get any better. Behind him is Victor Zambrano, who
pitched well enough in his starts in 2002 to be the #2 starter; take that
how you may. Dewon Brazelton, a rookie who will be 23 in June, will likely
be handed the #3 spot. The other two spots will likely be given to fading
prospects Nick Bierbrodt and Jason Standridge. Jorge Sosa will also get
some starts. Don't expect this rotation to be intact by the end of May.
If the starters are bad, the bullpen is worse. Esteban Yan left for
greener pastures in Texas. If there's one bright spot, it has to be Lance
Carter, who had a 1.33 ERA in 20.1 innings in 2002. Other than him, only
Travis Phelps had an ERA under 5.00.
The line up is not quite as bad. Some of these guys, like Aubrey Huff and
Carl Crawford, really have huge upsides. It seems like the management is
going to finally sit Greg Vaughn (.163, 8, 29 in 251 ABs in 2002) and make
either Travis Lee or Lee Stevens the DH. The centerfield job could be
handed to Rocco Baldelli, the Baseball America Minor League Player of the
Year in 2002. However, the left side of the infield will be lucky to
break .230, and adding Brent Abernathy or Marlon Anderson in at 2B will be
no help to that.
The defense is a question mark as well. Jared Sandberg, Ryne's nephew, is
not nearly as talented as his uncle, and made 19 errors in less than 100
games at 3B last year. Rey Ordonez, now four years removed from his third
consecutive Gold Glove, had his worst outing of his career last year, and
looked like he phoned his performance in from Newark. Abernathy and
Anderson are two of the worst fielding 2Bs out there. At least Travis Lee
has a good glove at 1B. The outfielders are all solid in that respect,
too.
This is a team banking on young talent; I'm just 29, and only a handful of
the Devil Rays are older than I am.
| Rotation |
Joe Kennedy. Not much else, although Brazelton could develop
into something better than anything else the team has.
|
| Middle Relief |
No-names all. Hopefully, Piniella will see the light and
keep Carter on the roster.
|
| Closer |
Jesus Colome had an ERA of 8.27 in 2002. 'Nuff said.
|
| Infield |
Huff and Lee provide a solid 1B. Other than that, Sandberg has
to learn how to hit, because he may be the only one of the other three
that can. Toby Hall had a decent year for them last year.
|
| Outfield |
Huge upside, but probably not in 2003. Can Ben Grieve regain
his form of a few years ago, or is he washed up at 27? Josh Hamilton, if
he gets his head on right, is waiting in the wings.
|
| DH |
Hopefully it will be split between Lee, Huff and Stevens, and Greg
Vaughn will be put out to pasture. How can Rey Ordonez have a batting
average that is 90 points higher than the designated hitter?
|
| Bench Depth |
Considering what the team has starting, it's not bad. The
backup 2B will have plenty of experience. The Lee/Huff/Stevens rotation
will do well for 1B and OF. Jason Conti could also provide some punch off
the bench. |
Post-season moves: D-
Team grade: F
Prediction: 5th in division (54-108)
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| Baltimore Orioles |
| Finished 4th in division, 11th in league, T-24th overall |
| Marquee Players for 2003 |
P Rodrigo Lopez (15-9, 3.57 ERA, 136 K)
P Jorge Julio (25 Sv, 1.99 ERA, 55 K)
3B Tony Batista (.244-31-87)
|
| Good Additions | Bad Additions | Notable Losses |
Omar Daal, P
Kerry Ligtenberg, P
|
|
Mike Bordick, SS |
The Orioles managed to sign what could turn out to be two of the better
free agent signings this winter. While Omar Daal is only two years
removed from his horrid 4-19 2000, he has rebounded nicely in the last two
years, combining for a 24-16 record. Kerry Ligtenberg has been a solid
reliever over his whole career, with an ERA barely above 3. Both will
contribute in a big way this year.
The Orioles' ace is Rodrigo Lopez, who started coming into his own last
year, and should steadily improve. After Daal, the O's have Sidney
Ponson, who is better than his 7-9 2002 record. They also look to two
"has beens" to rebound in Pat Hentgen and Scott Erickson. If it were the
mid 90's, these two would be the aces of the staff. Nearly 10 years
later, though, they're barely decent enough to fill out a rotation.
The bullpen, which will now be led by Ligtenberg and Julio, is actually
pretty good. "The rest" are led by Willis Roberts and Buddy Groom, both
of whom had solid years in 2002.
Looking at this team, they're almost the anti-Blue Jays. Better than
average pitching with potential and a flat-out bad lineup. The highest
2002 average for any retuning starter is Gary Matthews Jr.'s .276.
Batista has some pop in his bat, though, and Jay Gibbons should lead the
team in home runs for years to come. Unfortunately, there's not much else
to talk about except for Jeff Conine, who continues to defy the odds with
good seasons. This is a lineup that got shut out 15 times in 2002, and it
didn't improve in the off-season.
The O's will feel the loss of Mike Bordick in the infield. Deivi Cruz and
Tony Batista do not make a good left side. Jerry Hairston Jr. does well
at second base. The outfielders aren't spectacular, though Matthews will
continue to develop into a fine CF.
| Rotation |
A lot of potential. There are some question marks behind
Erickson and Hentgen, but if it can come together, this could be a .500
team.
|
| Middle Relief |
Very strong, if 2002 trends continue. Ligtenberg will be a
big help with Groom and Roberts.
|
| Closer |
Julio is ever-progressing, and is primed for a breakout year,
assuming the lineup can get him some leads to save.
|
| Infield |
Batista and Conine pack some punch into the lineup, but Hairston
and Cruz are two #9 hitters. All should play at least 140 games, barring
injury. Geronimo Gil can throw runners out, but lets too many get by him
at the plate.
|
| Outfield |
Gibbons and Matthews are the offensive future of the club.
Marty Cordova gets the nod in left but could split time with Melvin Mora.
|
| DH |
David Segui, Melvin Mora and Chris Richard will have the team
reminiscing about Albert Belle before April 15.
|
| Bench Depth |
Mora and Richard are decent enough bench players. Segui is a
very good defensive 1B. Tim Raines, Jr., while obviously not as talented
as his father, has some speed and could run in a pinch.
|
Post-season moves: B+. Would've been an A if they didn't replace Bordick
with Cruz.
Team grade: C/C+.
Prediction: 4th in division (76-86)
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| Toronto Blue Jays |
| Finished 3rd in division, 8th in league, T-17th overall
|
| Marquee Players for 2003 |
1B Carlos Delgado (.277-38-108)
3B Eric Hinske (.279-24-84)
OF Vernon Wells (.275-23-100)
P Roy Halladay (19-7, 2.93 ERA, 168 K)
P Kelvim Escobar (38 Saves)
|
| Good Additions | Bad Additions | Notable Losses |
Mike Bordick, SS
Cory Lidle, P
|
Tanyon Sturtze, P
Greg Myers, C
|
|
The Blue Jays are a team that always seems to be on the cusp of good; not
quite there, but not really a bad team. They have finished in third place
in the A.L. East each of the last five years, usually well behind the Red
Sox and Yankees. This year should not be different. The team did not
make any major moves in the off-season, and should be pretty much the same
place they were last year for most of the season.
To start with, the team does not have a reliable pitching staff behind Roy
Halladay. Cory Lidle may have been a good pickup for them, but he's still
a stretch at #2 in the rotation, and is better suited as a #3 starter.
Tanyon Sturtze, the #3 starter, went 4-18 with a 5.18 ERA for Tampa Bay
last year. The Jays are hoping he returns to his previous form, going
18-15 before last year. Behind Sturtze, they have a promising lefthander
in Mark Hendrickson, but a pitcher who is turning 29 during the season
should not be "promising". Halladay himself is three years younger.
The bullpen is equally full of question marks, but if Kelvim Escobar
falters, look for Cliff Politte to take over as the closer. The rest of
the pen is fairly unproven, with none of them being particularly reliable.
The Jays still have a potent lineup, made more so by the emergence of Eric
Hinske last year at third base. The outfield of Wells, Shannon Stewart
and former Ranger Frank Catalanotto should prove to be one of the better
hitting OFs in the league. Of course, they then have Carlos Delgado at
first, but he has faltered in the second half the last few years.
In 2002, the left side of the infield didn't play so well in the field,
with 43 errors combined between shortstop and third base. That is why
they brought in Mike Bordick, one of the best fielding shortstops in the
league. He will captain an infield with Delgado, Hinske and second
baseman Orlando Hudson.
| Rotation |
Halladay's a legitimate ace. Lidle could fit as a #2, but the
rest is very suspect.
|
| Middle Relief |
Questionable at best, but Politte is a keeper.
|
| Closer |
Escobar is unreliable at times, but has a very big upside.
|
| Infield |
Two big bats, and a big glove. Hopefully for them, Hudson will
hit for them, because Bordick sure won't. The catchers are nothing to
write home about.
|
| Outfield |
Pretty solid behind the plate and in the field. There's speed
to spare between Wells and Stewart, too.
|
| DH |
Josh Phelps is another young talent that could really come into his
own this year. If he continues to progress, he should be listed with the
Marquee Players next year.
|
| Bench Depth |
The catchers are interchangeable. Dave Berg isn't a bad
backup, and they have some young IFs and OFs that could develop down the
road.
|
Post-season moves: B-. Will be better if Lidle plays to his potential.
Team grade: C+
Prediction: Third in division (81-81)
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| Boston Red Sox |
| Finished 2nd in the division, T-5th in league, T-9th overall. |
| Marquee Players for 2003 |
P Pedro Martinez (20-4, 2.26, 239 K)
P Derek Lowe (21-8, 2.58, 127K)
SS Nomar Garciaparra (.310-24-120)
OF Johnny Damon (.286-14-63, 31 SB)
OF Manny Ramirez (.349-33-107)
|
| Good Additions | Bad Additions | Notable Losses |
Ramiro Mendoza, P
Alan Embree, P
David Ortiz, 1B-DH
|
Damian Jackson, 2B-SS
Dave Nilsson, 1B-DH
280 seats atop the Green Monster
|
Cliff Floyd, OF
Ugueth Urbina, P
|
For the past five years or so, it has seemed like the Red Sox have played
second fiddle to the Yankees in the A.L. East. As a matter of fact, they
have finished in second for the past five years, and they didn't do much
that would change that outlook for 2003. Two very major losses in Cliff
Floyd and Uggie Urbina will really hurt this team in the long run. Jeremy
Giambi will not be able to produce like Floyd.
Last year, this team had a very strong bullpen (although the 15-22 record
for relievers states otherwise). This year, they have added Ramiro
Mendoza, who should also be available for spot starting, as well as Alan
Embree. Both of these pitchers had solid 2002s, and should immediately
help the team. However, the pen has these three dreaded words going
against it: closer by committee. Rarely has this system worked well for
long, and pitchers just don't have the same confidence if they don't know
their roles. Shouldn't the auditioning be done before they go up to
Boston?
As was mentioned, Jeremy Giambi will likely take over in the lineup for
Cliff Floyd, with Trot Nixon likely being the regular right fielder.
Another change will happen in the infield, where the quartet of David Ortiz,
Shea Hillenbrand, Giambi, and Bill Mueller will fight for playing time at
3B and 1B. Hillenbrand got off to a fast start in 2002, but slowed
dramatically after the All-Star break, and could lose significant playing
time because of it. Ortiz, a recent signing from the Twins, will also
share time with Giambi at DH.
With the corners in flux, the middle of the infield is shored up by Todd
Walker and Nomar Garciaparra. Walker has a decent bat, and a pretty good
glove, too. If you're reading this, you know about Nomar's bat. However,
what you may not know is that he led all A.L. shortstops in errors in
2002.
Then comes the big question that most Red Sox fans should have for Theo
Epstein: where's the bottom of the rotation? Sure, they have Pedro, and
Derek Lowe was a very nice surprise. After that is Tim Wakefield, who,
although he was an on-and-off starter for the past few years, did pitch
very well as a starter in 2002. Then there's John Burkett and Casey
Fossum, one of which is fading towards the end of his career, while the
other is unproven. These two won't get past 5 innings often, so that pen
will have to work. Frank Castillo would be the #6, but, at 6-15 last
year, his days in the rotation may be over.
| Rotation |
First you have Pedro. A step below, Derek Lowe, although his
win total should be closer to 15 than 21 this year. Wakefield at #3 is a
slight stretch, but it goes downhill from there. One more solid starter
really would propel this team.
|
| Middle Relief |
Solid. Mendoza, Embree, Bob Howry, Mike Timlin.
Reminiscent of the Yankee pen of the late 90s, especially since Mendoza is
there. There's one thing missing, though
|
| Closer |
None, although Embree may have the first shot. See above.
|
| Infield |
Nomar and Walker are definites. It's hard to say who will be
starting on any given day in the other positions, although Grady Little
will likely start with Mueller at 3rd and Giambi at 1st. Jason Varitek is
a solid catcher.
|
| Outfield |
Still solid, but Manny Ramirez is a defensive liability. Damon
has a great glove, and Nixon is good enough. However, the loss of Cliff
Floyd will hurt their offensive productivity.
|
| DH |
Giambi and Ortiz are both good enough offensively to be in the lineup.
.270-20-70 should be pretty reasonable here.
|
| Bench Depth |
Pretty good, considering that they'll have some starters from
previous years and other teams riding pine for a bit. Benny Agbayani is a
decent enough 4th OF.
|
Post-season moves: C+. Two major losses are evened out by a bunch of
small gains
Team grade: B+
Prediction: 2nd in division (96-66)
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| New York Yankees |
| Finished 1st in the division, 1st in league, 1st overall. Lost in ALDS to
Anaheim. |
| Marquee Players for 2003 |
1B Jason Giambi (.314-41-122)
2B Alfonso Soriano (.300-39-102, 41 SB)
SS Derek Jeter (.297-18-75, 32 SB)
OF Bernie Williams (.333-19-102)
P Mike Mussina (18-10, 4.05 ERA, 182 K)
P Andy Pettitte (13-5, 3.27 ERA, 97 K)
P Mariano Rivera (2.74 ERA, 28 SV)
|
| Good Additions | Bad Additions | Notable Losses |
Antonio Osuna, P
Chris Hammond, P
Hideki Matsui, OF
Jon Lieber, P
|
Todd Zeile, 3B
|
Orlando Hernandez, P
Ramiro Mendoza, P
Mike Stanton, P
|
In 2002, the Yankees pitching staff was befuddled by injuries to a few of
their major players, like Mariano Rivera, Roger Clemens, and Andy
Pettitte. Somehow, 39 year old David Wells led the starters in wins (19)
and ERA (3.75). The team has already started looking forward to 2004,
signing Jon Lieber (who will not pitch in 2003), and Jose Contreras to
replace the probably-retiring Wells and Clemens.
The bullpen has changed dramatically. Gone are two major ingredients of
the Yankees championships of the 1990s: Mike Stanton (Mets) and Ramiro
Mendoza (Red Sox). In their places are Chris Hammond, who had a
dominating 0.95 ERA in the Braves' bullpen a year ago, and Antonio Osuna.
Also being relagated to the pen are Sterling Hitchcock and Cuban star Jose
Contreras. They will also help shore up the starters if there are any
injuries.
The defense and lineup are unchanged execpt for left field, where Japanese
League star Hideki Matsui now roams. Matsui hit .334 with 50 HRs and 107
RBIs overseas last year. Skeptics are looking at the series in the
fall when American players toured Japan; Matsui did not hit well in that
series. However, it remains to be seen whether he'll hit like Ichiro or
bomb like the previous Hideki, Irabu.
As was mentioned before, the Yankees have set their pitching staff nicely
for 2004 already, having Mussina, Pettitte, Lieber, Contreras and Weaver.
If they get in trouble in 2003, Weaver may not be there in 2004. They
will also likely try to trade Raul Mondesi for prospects before the season
starts, in which case Juan Rivera would get the nod in right.
The Yankees once again have the higest payroll in baseball, thanks to the
signings of Contraras and Matsui. However, with Clemens, Mondesi and
Wells gone after 2003, along with El Duque off of their books, their
payroll will drop significantly in 2004.
| Rotation | All potent, all at least #2 starters on most other teams. Great
backups in case of injury, too. Clemens and Wells are getting up there,
and while neither are as good as their peak years, they haven't shown many
signs of age. Jeff Weaver has something to prove to the pinstripe
faithful.
|
| Middle Relief | The point of major change with the club, and where most of
the questions lie. Can Hammond replace Stanton? Can Osuna be the next
Mendoza? A pen of Hitchcock, Contreras, Karsay, Osuna, along with Randy Choate looks fairly impressive on paper; Choate will likely only pitch in mop-up duty. |
| Closer | Mariano Rivera. What can you say? If he's not hurt, he's one of
the most dominant pitchers in the game. In case he does get hurt again,
the Yankees have brought in Juan Acevedo from the Tigers.
|
| Infield | Giambi, Soriano, Jeter and Ventura, with Posada behind the plate.
One of the best hitting IFs in the league, but the defense leaves
something to be desired. Soriano led 2Bs in errors, and his range isn't
that good. However, he is ever improving, and has a personal mentor in
Willie Randolph. Backup 1B and DH Nick Johnson has a solid glove at 1B. |
| Outfield | Matsui, Williams and Mondesi. Two good hitters, two good
fielders. They'd like to trade Mondesi and his cannon and put Juan
Rivera, who they're pretty happy with, in right. Hopefully, there won't
be any golf carts in the way. |
| DH | Nick Johnson didn't have a great 2002, but his .749 OPS is promising. |
| Bench Depth | Not much to write home about, except Juan Rivera. When you
have Enrique Wilson and Todd Zeile backing up the infield, you hope your
starters don't get hurt. |
Post-season moves: Inc. — let's see how Matsui and Contreras do before
giving a grade.
Team grade: A+
Prediction: First in division (102-60)
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