By Ed Barnes, Staff Writer
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2004 Major League Baseball Preview: National League West
The more things change, the more they stay the same. This cliché perfectly describes the NL West in 2004. The division is weaker after the departure of top-tier pitchers like Curt Schilling and Kevin Brown as well as the loss of team stalwarts like Rich Aurilia and Benito Santiago. Regardless, teams in the West are facing many of the same questions they tried to answer in 2003.
Can the Giants continue to win by relying on Barry Bonds, pitching and defense? Can Arizona get another productive year out of its veterans and can the Baby Backs continue to develop? Can the Dodgers score enough to capitalize on their outstanding pitching? Can the Padres young pitchers finally produce and can the team stay healthy? Can the Rockies ever get decent pitching or win on the road?
Many of these questions have been around for several seasons. Only the people wearing the uniforms have changed. As in the past, the division is wide open, with four of the five teams legitimately believing that if the breaks go their way, a championship is there for the taking.
The news of the off-season for the NL West wasn't who arrived but who left. Teams like the Dodgers only managed to add players like Juan Encarnacion and Bubba Trammell, hardly solutions to their offensive struggles, especially after losing an ace like Brown. The Diamondbacks added Richie Sexson but lost Schilling, half of a tandem that has been the cornerstone of any success the organization has known.
The only team on the rise is the Padres who are healthy and moving into a new downtown ballpark. However, they'd have to go from worst to first and improve at least 25 games to contend for the division crown.
Spring training will provide more answers about this division than it has in years, with more rotation and lineup spots up for grabs than in quite awhile. Regardless of what teams find out during the spring, another cliché must be ratting around in the heads of players, managers and front offices. We'd rather be lucky than good.
Predicted Final Standings
* indicates player was signed on a minor league contract in the off-season.
| San Francisco Giants |
| Finished 1st in division, 2nd in league, 3rd overall |
| Marquee Players for 2004 |
Barry Bonds .341-45-90-1.278 On-Base Plus Slugging(OPS)
Jason Schmidt 17-5,208 K, 2.34 ERA, 0.95 Walks and Hits per innings pitched(WHIP) |
| Good Additions | Bad Additions | Key Losses |
A.J. Pierzynski
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Michael Tucker
Brett Tomko
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Rich Aurilia
Benito Santiago
Tim Worrell
Joe Nathan
Jose Cruz Jr. |
The Question: Can the Giants continue to win by relying on Barry Bonds, pitching and defense?
Before the 2003 season the Giants were trying to make up for the loss of Jeff Kent and Russ Ortiz. Now heading into the 2004 season they have to replace players like Rich Aurilia and Benito Santiago, both constants in the Giants first consecutive playoff appearances since 1933-34.
General manager Brian Sabean tends to make moves that leave critics shaking their heads, but end up working out over the long run. One of his first decisions was to trade fan favorite Matt Williams to Cleveland in a deal that brought Kent to the Bay Area. Since then, his record has been good except for hiccups over the last two seasons like his trade of Russ Ortiz to Atlanta. Giants fans are counting on the fact that Sabean knows what he's doing because his team lost more talent this off-season than it picked up.
Giants fans, media and even Barry Bonds were all hoping for Sabean to sign a marquee player to play right field. It didn't happen as Sabean went with Jeffrey Hammonds, Michael Tucker and Dustan Mohr to fill that spot. A.J. Pierzynski was brought in to replace Santiago but Neifi Perez is set to be the opening day shortstop, a thought that makes Giants fans wish that Aurilia was still around. Fans ultimately must give Sabean the benefit of the doubt as he has effectively traded prospects for veteran help. So much so that no projected opening day positions players for 2004 will be home grown.
Trainer Stan Conte will have one of the most important roles for San Francisco in keeping older players on the field. Bonds is still Bonds, but manager Felipe Alou will rest him once a week, especially when playing a day game after a night game. Marquis Grissom also will require frequent rest and Conte is still working with Robb Nen who is still trying to recover from three surgeries in a six-month period during 2003. Staff ace Jason Schmidt is also recovering from surgery on his right elbow after pitching the final two months of last season with a partial ligament tear.
The Giants are counting on all of these players to be healthy for opening day and are in deep trouble if they aren't. One of the reasons that the Giants have been successful in recent years is their ability to stay healthy or plug in players to fill holes created by injuries. With the depth lost this off-season, the Giants don't have a pitcher like Tim Worrell to step in if Nen isn't ready. Top prospect Jesse Foppert also isn't available for this season after making his debut last year, but undergoing Tommy John surgery last September.
Schmidt and Nen are also important because, over the last three seasons, the Giants have started to rely less on outscoring opponents and to rely more on pitching and defense. Last year San Francisco's run total declined for the third straight year as the Giants only scored 755 runs, the team's lowest total since 1996. However, the Giants finished with the third best team ERA in baseball at 3.73 and fourth best fielding percentage at .987.
Last year Bonds led the team with only 90 RBI's which tied him for 53rd in the majors with Raul Ibanez and Hank Blalock. 2003 was the first time the Giants didn't have a player drive in 100 runs since 1992. While San Francisco can expect a decrease in production from the shortstop position, they are counting on Edgardo Alfonzo to perform like he did in the second half of 2003, for all of 2004. Alou is planning on using Alfonzo as a cleanup hitter to ensure that Bonds gets a first inning plate appearance, hopefully with runners on base.
The Giants have several questions to answer, but that is nothing new for them. Whether under Dusty Baker, or last year under Alou, the Giants have consistently exceeded expectations. With the rest of the division down, the Giants will rely on their veterans to once again rise to the top of the West.
| Rotation | Last year Schmidt developed into the first true ace the Giants have had in over two decades. He says that he will be healthy for opening day. The Giants need another season like the one he produced in 2003 where he led the NL starters in ERA at 2.34 and ML starters in WHIP at 0.95. Jerome Williams will be in the second spot and needs to find a way to perform like he did before the all-star break for an entire season. In 2003 Williams was 5-1 with a 2.96 ERA before the break but gave up all 10 of his home runs while going 2-4 with a 3.82 ERA after the break. Kirk Reuter posted his lowest win total in a Giants uniform in 2003, winning only 10 games while making his first trip to the disabled list in his career. Other key peripheral numbers declined for the left-hander as he walked more hitters than he struck out for the first time in his career. San Francisco should start the season with Brett Tomko and Dustin Hermanson in the fourth and fifth spots in the rotation. The Giants hope Tomko will benefit from moving to a pitchers park and a full season with pitching coach Dave Righetti. The club thinks he has talent and the right-hander has only missed one start in his seven-year career. Hermanson was a pleasant surprise for the Giants after coming over from St. Louis last season. If an injury occurs, Kevin Correia could be called up from Fresno or Giants could call on right-handed prospect Merkin Valdez who San Francisco thinks could be their answer to Dontrelle Willis.
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| Middle Relief | With the departures of Worrell and Joe Nathan in the off-season, the Giants could be caught in this department if Nen isn't ready for opening day. Felix Rodriguez is still a reliable, flame-throwing set up man. The Giants were encouraged by the performance of Jim Brower and Matt Herges and both will be back for 2004. Both of the lefty relievers will be back as Jason Christiansen and Scott Eyre return. Even with the return of familiar faces, the Giants will be lucky to come close to the 3.47 ERA posted by its relievers last season.
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| Closer | When Nen is healthy, he's one of the best in the game. However, questions about his health still need to be answered. Assuming he is healthy, the Giants have a pitcher who should save at least 40 games in dominant fashion. If Nen isn't healthy, the Giants will probably need to make a deal or go over their projected budget to bring in someone like Ugueth Urbina who remains unsigned.
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| Infield | A.J. Pierzynski gives the Giants a younger and better offensive player than Santiago was. Pierzynski was especially good for the Twins on the road hitting .328 away from the Metrodome and .332 after the all-star break. J.T. Snow was resigned and will continue to provide solid defense at first base. Snow is hardly the prototypical number two hitter but posted a career high .387 OBP, essential when hitting in front of Bonds. Ray Durham will be back to play second baseball. Durham suffered nagging leg injuries that caused his play to tail off during the second half of the year. The Giants need him to get on base at the .386 clip he posted before the all-star break to force pitchers to think about pitching to Bonds. Alfonzo is back at third and after the all-star break his bat finally started to come alive. His .846 OPS after the break is what the Giants expect from him in the cleanup spot in 2004. The Giants shortstop should be Perez as he's guaranteed a couple million although rookie Cody Ransom will get a look during the spring and Pedro Feliz will be taking ground balls at the position too. Perez is only a .243 hitter since leaving the Rockies in 2001.
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| Outfield | Bonds and Grissom will be the regular left and centerfielders. Bonds has shown no signs of dropping off after his third consecutive season with an on-base percentage over .500. 2003 was Bonds' 11th straight season with an OPS of over 1.000. Grissom was a pleasant surprise last season as he posted four-year highs in runs and RBI's as well as hitting .300 for the first time since 1996. In right the Giants will use a combination of Tucker, Hammonds and Mohr depending on matchups. Feliz will also see some at-bats as an outfielder.
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| Bench Depth | San Francisco no longer has the bad contract of Marvin Benard to deal with and has better options off the bench anyway in whichever of the three right fielders isn't playing. Yorvit Torrealba is still the backup catcher who is good enough defensively to make Alou feel just fine about giving Pierzynski a day off. Feliz should get plenty of opportunities to start against left handed pitchers and spell Bonds in left, especially after hitting 16 home runs in only 235 at-bats last season. Ransom should end up making the team as a backup infielder and should get some starts shortstop and second base.
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Post-season moves: C Even though Sabean has earned the benefit of the doubt, the Giants are very thin in the bullpen after trading Nathan and letting Worrell get away. Pierzynski was a nice pickup but no one is excited about the platoon in right field.
Team grade: B+
Prediction: First in division (91-71)
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| Los Angeles Dodgers |
| Finished 2nd in division, 7th in league, 14th overall |
| Marquee Players for 2004 |
Shawn Green (.280-19-85)
Hideo Nomo (16-13, 177 K, 3.09 ERA, 1.25 WHIP)
Eric Gagne (55 of 55 in save ops, 137 K, 0.69 WHIP) |
| Good Additions | Bad Additions | Key Losses |
Juan Encarnacion
GM Paul DePodesta |
Bubba Trammell
Jeremy Giambi
Jose Hernandez
Jose Lima
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Owner NewsCorp
Kevin Brown
Paul Quantrill
Jeromy Burnitz
Brian Jordan
Fred McGriff
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The Question: Can the Dodgers score enough to capitalize on their outstanding pitching?
Last year the Dodgers were historically good with their pitching and historically bad with their hitting. The pitching staff gave up only eight more runs over the course of the season than the Cincinnati Reds had given up by the all-star break. However, the offense scored only one more run than the Boston Red Sox had scored by the all-star break. In fact, the last time a team averaged fewer than the 3.54 runs per game LA scored last season was 1992, when the Dodgers averaged 3.38.
Seventy-four players qualified for the batting title in the National League. If you include Jeromy Burnitz, the Dodgers had four of the 11 lowest averages, three of the bottom six lowest on-base percentages and three of the eight lowest slugging percentages. Burnitz is the only player that was at the bottom of the league in any of those categories to leave the team in the off-season. Even more amazing, the Dodgers brought in the guy with the worst average in the league this off-season in Jose Hernandez.
During the off-season Rupert Murdoch and Fox sold the Dodgers to Frank McCourt. The deal took a long time to be finalized which tied the Dodgers hands when it came to acquiring offensive talent. Los Angeles was rumored to be in the market for Magglio Ordonez, Frank Thomas and Nomar Garciaparra among others but NewsCorp insisted that no deals be made until McCourt officially took over the team.
The inability to make a deal, along with his refusal to trade young pitching prospects, cost GM Dan Evans his job. Once McCourt took over, Evans was fired and Oakland A's assistant GM Paul DePodesta took over. DePodesta is very highly regarded but won't be able to do much in the free agent market because all of the impact hitters are signed.
What the Dodgers will have to decide in spring training is how much they like this year's team and if they are willing to trade some of the young pitching that Evans held on to. Many of these prospects, like Edwin Jackson and Joel Hanrahan, are very highly regarded. If they are as good as advertised, the Dodgers may try to win another season of 3-2 ballgames, let these prospects develop, and let DePodesta try to reshape the team next off-season.
Los Angeles returns most of its pitching staff from last season but the pitchers they lost were crucial. Kevin Brown was second in the NL in ERA and Paul Quantrill led the team with 89 appearances, but both will be with the Yankees this season. Hideo Nomo moves to the top of the rotation but he has a big question to answer. He's coming off consecutive seasons of 200+ innings. The only other time he's done that in his career, his next season was his worst at 6-12 with a 4.92 ERA.
The Dodgers pitching staff should put up impressive numbers again, making the most of their home ballpark. But their inability to add any pop means the offense could score even fewer runs in 2004. Manager Jim Tracy can only expect to feel more heat during the upcoming season after the local media watches the Dodgers struggle to break the 600 run barrier.
| Rotation | Dodgers starters led baseball with a 3.49 ERA. Nomo, Odalis Perez and Kaz Ishii all return from last year's rotation. Wilson Alvarez was impressive in some late starts and was re-signed. Jeff Weaver came over in the Kevin Brown deal and Jose Lima was signed as a free agent. If the Dodgers decide to keep top prospect Edwin Jackson in the minors to start the year, Weaver, Alvarez and Lima will battle for the 4 and 5 spots in the rotation with the odd man out moving to the bullpen. However, Jackson is one of the brightest prospects in the game and was very impressive in his late season call up and could force two of the aforementioned three to the bullpen or force a trade. Darren Dreifort and his huge contract are still around but don't expect him to be healthy. In 2003 he came back from his second Tommy John surgery only to need an operation on his arthritic right knee.
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| Middle Relief | Dodger relievers were even more impressive than their starters posting a 2.46 ERA in 2003. Guillermo Mota held batters to a .206 average against with a WHIP of .99. Paul Shuey allowed only 50 hits in 69 innings while holding righties to a .193 average. Tom Martin overcame five shoulder surgeries to appear in 80 games while allowing only 62 total base runners. All of them will return in 2004 with Shuey taking the place of Quantrill, providing he can stay healthy. The long relievers will be whoever misses out on a rotation spot among Alvarez, Weaver and Lima. Regardless, the bullpen is a huge strength. If Dreifort does manage to be healthy, he might end up in the bullpen, a place he started his career for the Dodgers.
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| Closer | Quite simply, in 2003 Eric Gagne produced the best season ever by a relief pitcher. He is still working on his streak of 63 consecutive saves that began in 2002. He's saved at least 50 games in each of his two seasons as a closer and had 100 more strikeouts than hits allowed in 2003. Gagne's perfection was one of the factors that kept the Dodgers over .500 last year. Expect another stellar year from the Canadian, especially after losing his arbitration case in the off-season.
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| Infield | Dodger pitchers love throwing to Paul LoDuca and the numbers show it. Even with an excellent 3.16 team ERA, LoDuca's catcher's ERA was nearly half a run lower. He is good offensively too and has changed his workout program to try and avoid the second half slumps that have plagued him the past two seasons. LoDuca will also get some time at first base to keep him in the lineup. The everyday first baseman should be Shawn Green. It was just announced that Green will work primarily at first in spring training. Green had shoulder surgery in the off-season and says he's healthy. Expect him to rediscover the swing that posted 91 home runs in 2001-02 and forget last seasons 19 HR's. Up the middle, Alex Cora and Cesar Izturis provide a great defensive pairing but the duo had OPS' of .625 and .597 respectively. Adrian Beltre teased Dodger fans with another big second half, but still hasn't put a full season together. No hitter on the roster has a better chance to improve dramatically than Beltre.
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| Outfield | Encarnacion had a solid year with the Marlins in 2003 (.270-19-94) and plays a good defensive outfield. Expect the RBI total to go down this season because Encarnacion won't have a lot of chances with runners on base like he did in Florida. Dave Roberts is a big key to the Dodgers offense. His on-base percentage slipped from .353 in 2002 to .331 in a 2003 that saw him hampered by hamstring injuries. Assuming Roberts is healthy, the Dodgers need him to get on and steal bases. If he doesn't do that, he isn't much of an asset due to his average defense. The other outfield spot is up for grabs with Green moving to first base. Trammell and Jeremy Giambi could form a left field platoon if LA doesn't bring in any other options.
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| Bench Depth | The Dodgers have a good utility man in Jolbert Cabrera who should see regular playing time without having a regular position. Cabrera can play second, short and in the outfield and hit .282 in 347 AB's last year. Robin Ventura is the primary backup at the corner infield positions, but his offensive numbers and range have decreased dramatically. He'll still catch everything hit to him and hit a few home runs on mistakes. Todd Hundley and David Ross will battle for the backup catcher spot and both could end up on the roster. If that happens, the fifth bench spot will be filled by whoever isn't playing left field that day between Trammell and Giambi.
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Post-season moves: D+ The Dodgers resigned some key pitchers but did nothing to address their offensive problems.
Team grade: C
Prediction: Third in division (82-80)
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| Arizona Diamondbacks |
| Finished 3rd in division, 9th in league, 16th overall |
| Marquee Players for 2003 |
Luis Gonzalez (.304-26-104)
Richie Sexson (.272-45-124 with Brewers)
Brandon Webb (10-9,172 K's, 2.84 ERA, 1.15 WHIP)
Randy Johnson (6-8,125 K's, 4.26 ERA, 1.33 WHIP) |
| Good Additions | Bad Additions | Key Losses |
Richie Sexson
Greg Colbrunn
Casey Fossum |
Roberto Alomar
Shane Reynolds
Brent Mayne
Steve Sparks
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Curt Schilling
Miguel Batista
Craig Counsell
Junior Spivey |
The Question : Can Arizona get another productive year out of its veterans and can the Baby Backs continue to develop?
They'd better if they want to have any success, even in a weakened division like the NL West. The Diamondbacks youth movement is coming at a critical time for this organization. After acquiring veterans like Matt Williams and Curt Schilling through trades and free agency, 2003 saw Arizona incorporate several young players from its farm system largely due to injury.
Injuries robbed this team of consistency in 2003. Manager Bob Brenly used 146 different lineups last season, including eleven different cleanup hitters. Eleven different pitchers started a game, as hurlers like Chris Capuano, Edgar Gonzalez and John Patterson were shuttled back and forth between Tucson and Phoenix due to injuries in the rotation.
These young players are crucial to the present and future of the Diamondbacks on the field and with its payroll. Arizona's payroll should be around $75 million this season and Owner Jerry Colangelo wants the payroll to be in the $50 million neighborhood by 2006.
This reduction is necessary for an organization that went deep into debt to bring in veteran talent. Many of the millions paid to players like Randy Johnson are deferred, forcing Arizona to lower its payroll to reduce debt while paying off those expensive, long-term deals.
Vets like Luis Gonzalez, Steve Finley and Johnson will be counted on to provide leadership for several young players who will play key roles in 2004. Finley still hasn't slowed down too much and remains one of the elite defensive centerfielders in the game. Gonzalez is a big concern for 2004. He still has plenty of pop in his bat, leading the D-Backs in every major offensive category in 2003. But Gonzo still is recovering from a partial tear of a ligament in his right elbow. He can't throw anywhere near 100% and one overheated throw could mean a complete tear and season ending surgery.
Johnson is another big question mark for Brenly. Is the Unit going to return to the level he reached his first few years in an Arizona uniform? Or is Johnson not the same pitcher after the health problems of last season?
2003 was Johnson's worst overall season since 1989. Last year he had his first losing record since 1992 but his peripheral numbers declined dramatically from his previous levels. Oppenents batted .280 against Johnson and lefties hit an unthinkable .303. His strikeout per 9 innings rate dropped below 10 for the first time since 1990 and he allowed the highest OPS (OBP+SLG) against of his career.
Johnson says he's fully healthy after missing twelve weeks of last season, but these numbers have to make the Diamondbacks nervous, knowing a healthy Johnson is essential for this team to make any noise in the division.
Johnson also won't have Schilling pitching behind in him the rotation, with Brandon Webb filling the #2 spot instead. Webb was amazingly consistent, producing quality starts in 21 of his 28 starts. He also was one of the league leaguers in batting average against, .212, but he fell off badly in the 2nd half of the season, posting an ERA of 4.20 in September. Webb must answer questions about his ability to help Johnson carry the load at the top of the rotation.
The Diamondbacks also have questions around the infield as they will field an all-new group from Opening Day, 2003. In the outfield, Danny Bautista must provide some offensive pop in right field, a lot to ask of a player that has never hit more than 11 homers or driven in more than 57 runs in a season.
In addition to these questions, the Diamondbacks need to find out if the Baby Backs can step up and perform like they did when pressed into action in 2003. Oscar Villarreal and Jose Valverde were solid in the bullpen but appeared in 86 and 54 games respectively. They will need to have similar success for the D-Backs to be effective. Other second year players like catcher Robby Hammock, infielder Matt Kata and shortstop Alex Cintron will also need to continue to contribute for this team to go anywhere.
The influx of young talent is causing Brenly and his coaching staff to approach spring training in a different way than in years past. With second year players in several key positions, workouts will be longer with more of a focus on fundamentals. Brenly has talked about the need to execute the basics like cutoffs, rundowns and bunt plays, areas where the Diamondbacks gave away games in 2003.
In the end, it will be too much for Brenly to deal with to make this team a winner. The Diamondbacks might be thinking, if Johnson stays healthy and Webb maintains his level we can be successful. Or if Roberto Alomar somehow finds his stroke again and Richie Sexson and Shea Hillenbrand enjoy success in a good hitters park like BankOne, this team can score a lot more runs than last season.
In won't happen though as this team just doesn't have enough talent to get near the top of this division. The Diamondbacks won't score enough, even with the new bats, or pitch well enough with the loss of Schilling, to contend in the West. Too many things have to go right for Arizona to compete, even with the division as down as it is. Diamondbacks fans know their hope lies in the future as prospects like Scott Hairston and Mike Gosling make it to the big league level to join the rest of the Baby Backs.
| Rotation | Johnson and Webb should be fine at the top of the rotation but the 3,4 and 5 spots are going to be Elmer Dessens, Shane Reynolds and one of the D-Backs young arms. Either Gonzalez or Patterson should be the eventual fifth starter but Patterson hasn't had much success at the big league level and Gonzalez is only 21 years old. Arizona starters posted a 3.94 ERA in 2003, expect it to be at least that high in 2004.
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| Middle Relief | This was one of Arizona's strengths in 2003 and it should remain that way in 2004. Fossum will provide a talented left-handed arm to complement Villarreal and Valverde who will be back as set up men. The return of submariner Mike Koplove gives Brenly another option in the bullpen.
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| Closer | Matt Mantei missed only one month of the 2003 season, the closest thing to a healthy season for him since coming to Arizona in 1999. His 29 saves, 50 appearances and 55 innings were the second highest totals of his career. Mantei has been effective when healthy but health is the main concern about him going into every season.
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| Infield | Arizona will have to blend together four different starters from the group that took the field on opening day 2003. Sexson will continue to put up big power numbers and Shea Hillenbrand hit for power after his arrival from Boston. Hillenbrand should benefit from having a big target like Sexson at first base with his history of erratic throwing. Cintron was a pleasant surprise in 2003 as he hit 13 home runs, showing more pop than anyone expected. The big question mark is Alomar. The switch hitter combined to hit a career low .258 in 2003, managing only a .197 average from the right side. Alomar still plays solid defense but he must provide a spark at the top of the lineup to make this team go.
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| Outfield | Gonzalez is a given in left field providing that he stayed healthy but that is a big if with the status of his elbow. If he's healthy, expect him to compete with Sexson for the team lead in most offensive categories. However, if his elbow starts to bother him, Arizona has no one who can come close to replacing him in the lineup. Finley has maintained his offensive and defensive levels since coming to the Diamondbacks. He has always been a streaky hitter and that hasn't changed over the past few seasons. But, might hit leadoff for this team, a spot in the order he's had only 154 AB's in over the past three seasons. Defensively, he still gets good jumps in the outfield and gets to a lot of balls in BankOne's spacious center field. Right field is the hole in Arizona's outfield as Bautista will have to show more than his production of 2003 when he hit 4 HR's and had 36 RBI's in 88 games. Bautista has gotten over 300 AB's only once in his career so counting on him for much is a stretch.
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| Bench Depth | The Diamondbacks bench is one of the strengths of the team and one of the best in the league. Carlos Baerga was one of the National League's best pinch hitters last year and hit .343 for the season. Greg Colbrunn returns to Arizona after one year in Seattle and is another reliable backup and pinch hitting option with some pop. Robby Hammock can catch, play third base and the outfield which gives Brenly flexibility. The other bench spots could go to Luis Terrero and Matt Kata. Arizona is still unsure if it will carry 12 pitchers.
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Post-season moves: C- Sexson is a nice addition but came at the expense of a lot of players. Anytime a team loses a pitcher like Schilling, it's a tough offseason.
Team grade: C-
Prediction: Fourth in division (77-85)
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| Colorado Rockies |
| Finished 4th in division, 12th in league, 21st overall |
| Marquee Players for 2003 |
Todd Helton (.358-33-117)
Preston Wilson (.282-36-141)
Shawn Chacon (11-8, 93 K's, 4.60 ERA, 1.33 WHIP in 23 starts) |
| Good Additions | Bad Additions | Key Losses |
Jeromy Burnitz
Jeff Tam
Denny Hocking
Damian Jackson |
Joe Kennedy
Shawn Estes
Jeff Fassero
Brian Tollberg
Royce Clayton
Turk Wendell
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Jay Payton
Justin Speier
Darren Oliver |
The Question: Will the Rockies ever be able to get decent pitching or win on the road?
Not this year. Pitching and road success are two problems that have plagued the Colorado organization since its inception. General Manager Dan O'Dowd has tried several different philosophies to bring a winner to Denver over his four years at the helm.
In 2000 he tried speed and doubles hitters. He figured that speed would cover the huge outfield and doubles hitters like Jeff Cirillo would have some of those two-baggers carry out in the thin air. After an 82-80 finish, O'Dowd figured that the Rockies needed more pitching.
Enter Mike Hampton and Denny Neagle and two huge contracts. These pitchers were supposed to be the solution to the Rockies pitching woes. Hampton's toughness and sinker, along with Neagle's assortment of off-speed pitches were supposed to be the answer. They weren't. The two have won a combined 40 games for the Rockies, with 21 of those victories coming in 2001. That season's 73-89 record was duplicated in 2002 as the Rockies tried to tread water under the weight of the organization's huge contracts.
2003 brought the arrival of Preston Wilson and Jay Payton as the Rockies tried to move back toward out slugging teams. Still, Colorado was last in the league in overall ERA and road ERA and only improved one game from the finishes of the two previous years.
2004 will see the Rockies try to return to their "glory days" of the Blake Street Bombers. Vinny Castilla is back along with outfielder Jeromy Burnitz, giving the Rockies plenty of power. The six projected hitters for the third through eighth spots in the lineup have had at least one 30 home run season.
That still doesn't solve the ultimate problem of pitching. The rotation is far from set, with Jason Jennings being the only certainty. Several veterans have been invited to spring training to battle for a job but Colorado isn't the place for pitchers like Shawn Estes and Jeff Fassero to resurrect their careers. The Rockies haven't helped by moving Shawn Chacon, their best starter from last season, to the closers role.
So what can we expect from the Rockies this year? They'll be near the top of the league in runs and in home winning percentage and will be at the bottom of the league in pitching and road winning percentage.
O'Dowd is trying to be proactive in helping the Rockies be successful as an organization, but right now he's tied his own hands for this season. The Neagle contract along with the big deals belonging to Todd Helton, Larry Walker and Charles Johnson mean the team doesn't have much money left to bring in help. The only option for the Rockies was to take fliers on veterans, offering them playing time as an incentive to come to Denver.
Colorado could have as many as eleven new players on the 2004 opening day roster, a number even higher than in years past. Again, the only constant in the Rockies organization is change. O'Dowd has never let his theories truly be tested, trying to start over again each season.
The Rockies think the solution to their pitching problems will be homegrown with the further development of Jennings and Aaron Cook on the big league level. In the upper levels of the minors, Colorado really likes Chin-Hui Tsao and Jason Young, both of whom could see action later this year. No matter who the Rockies put out there, expect more of the same from them in 2004. A record similar to what they've posted the last few years along with a finish at the bottom of the division.
| Rotation | Almost every spot is up for grabs aside from the one held by Jennings. The Rockies say that their other options all have something to prove which really means they can't be counted on. The pool to fill the other spots includes Fassero, Estes, Young, Tsao, Cook, Denny Stark, Joe Kennedy, Brian Tollberg, Scott Elarton and Adam Bernero. Nuff' said. Expect the kids like Tsao and Young to start in the minors as the Rockies give the veteran options a chance. No matter who is out there this year, the Rockies shouldn't expect to improve on the 5.57 ERA posted by their starters last season.
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| Middle Relief | Colorado got surprisingly solid performances from pitchers like Justin Speier, Brian Fuentes, Steve Reed and Javier Lopez. The funky deliveries were all effective, especially for Coors Field. However, Speier is gone leaving new arrivals Jeff Tam and Turk Wendell arriving to fill his role. The rest of the bullpen should be filled by some of the pitchers who fail to make the rotation. That can't be good.
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| Closer | Shawn Chacon was the Rockies best starter last year, but suffered an injury for the second consecutive year. Colorado hopes he can keep his elbow healthy in a relief role. Chacon has fastball that consistently reaches 94-MPH complemented by a cutter, curveball and change-up. The Rockies are hoping for a Gagne-esque conversion but Coors Field isn't exactly Dodger Stadium. Chacon has one career relief appearance entering 2004.
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| Infield | Charles Johnson still can throw out runners but isn't the impact player he used to be defensively. Offensively he hit .153 on the road last year and is a negative for the team at $9 million. Helton will contend for another batting crown and could improve his power numbers after bulking up to 220 this off-season. He's said that he doesn't expect his flexibility to be affected and that should mean continued Gold Glove caliber defense at first base. Second base is the only position question mark for the Rockies with Damien Jackson and rookie Aaron Miles competing for the job. Royce Clayton has been signed to play shortstop and should perform like Neifi Perez did while in Colorado. Castilla is an upgrade defensively at third and will hit 20+ homers.
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| Outfield | The Rockies outfield could produce 100 home runs in 2004. The big key to that is Larry Walker returning to some semblance of his form of 2001. His home run total dropped for the second straight season in 2003 as he only managed 16 bombs. Walker stayed in Denver and has been working out at Coors all off-season. The Rockies need a big turnaround from him in 2004. Preston Wilson lead the NL in RBI's with 141 and his speed allowed him to cover the huge gaps at Coors. Jeromy Burnitz hit 31 home runs last year, a total that he should at least equal this season.
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| Bench Depth | It's tough to project the quality of the bench for Colorado because it is hard to tell who it will include. Jackson could easily become a utility man if he loses out on the second base job. He's shown the ability to handle the infield and outfield defensively so he could be more useful in a utility role. Denny Hocking should provide versatility around the infield. Kit Pellow could make the team because of his ability to play catcher, first, third and the outfield. Other people invited to spring training are Todd Greene, Benji Gil, Rene Reyes, Luis Gonzalez (not that one) and Mark Sweeney.
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Post-season moves: D
Team grade: D
Prediction: Fifth in division (72-90)
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| San Diego Padres |
| Finished 5th in division, 16th in league, 28th overall |
| Marquee Players for 2004 |
Brian Giles (.299-20-88 with Pittsburgh and San Diego)
Phil Nevin (.279-13-46 in 59 games)
Ryan Klesko (.252-21-67 in 121 games)
David Wells (15-7, 4.14 ERA, 1.23 WHIP with the Yankees) |
| Good Additions | Bad Additions | Key Losses |
David Wells
Jay Payton
Ramon Hernandez
Akinori Otsuka
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Jeff Cirillo
Ismael Valdes
Rey Ordonez
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Mark Kotsay
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The Question: Can the Padres young pitchers finally produce and can the team stay healthy?
San Diego has been trying to build a team that will be a winner the first year in its new downtown ballpark. Like the ballpark process, the rebuilding of the Padres has gone through several starts and stops. Now, in 2004, the Padres finally look ready finish higher than fourth in the division for the first time since going to the World Series in 1998.
Petco Park was originally due to be ready for Opening Day 2002. The organization was supposed to be ready by then. However, the last two seasons have been injury plagued but have allowed the young pitching in the organization to gain valuable experience, even if it came at the expense of a good winning percentage. 2002 and 2003 saw injuries to key players like Phil Nevin and Ryan Klesko, but produced the emergence of young players like Sean Burroughs and Jake Peavy.
It's safe to say that the Padres are the only team in the NL West that has improved since last season. Forty percent of the 40-man roster will be different from last year's spring training, and most of the changes are upgrades. Not only will Klesko, Nevin and Trevor Hoffman enter the season healthy, the acquisition of Brian Giles, Jay Payton and David Wells gives San Diego another impact bat, a solid replacement for Mark Kotsay, and veteran starter. The Padres strengthened their bullpen during the off-season by re-signing Rod Beck and adding Japanese pitcher Akinori Otsuka.
With a better team around them, young pitchers like Peavy, Adam Eaton and Brian Lawrence should have better records just because they will receive better run support. All of these pitchers had ERA's under 4.20 last year and will also benefit from more time with pitching coach Darren Balsley, who took over during the first half of last season.
One thing the Padres can take from 2003 was decent defense as they were 11th in the majors in team fielding percentage. While there might be an adjustment period to their new park, San Diego should be solid defensively.
Expect the Padres new park to benefit the team as it should play like Pac Bell/SBC Park. The deep gap in right center will swallow some home runs and will allow the pitching staff to cut down on 206 home runs allowed in 2003. While the park will take away home runs from the Padres too, San Diego was 28th in the majors in home runs last year and will raise that total simply by having Klesko, Nevin and Giles for a full season.
This team has done more to answer its questions than any other team in the division. The only question still to be answered is, how much progress can the team's younger players make in 2004. With the city excited about the new ballpark and the infusion of veteran talent through trades and free agency, the Padres believe that they can go worst to first.
A turnaround of 25 games is what it would take to get to 90 victories and that seems like too much to expect from this team. But with every other team in the division weaker than last season, the Padres will finish higher than fourth, just not in first.
| Rotation | Wells, Peavy, Eaton and Lawrence are set in stone with the fifth spot open to veterans like Sterling Hitchcock and Ismael Valdes. Expect Hitchcock to get that spot to start the season with Valdes in long-relief.
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| Middle Relief | Other than a long relief spot and the left-handed specialist role, the bullpen is almost completely set. Scott Linebrink did a nice job after being claimed off waivers from the Astros during 2003 and Jay Witasick returns as well. Otsuka and Rod Beck will be the other right-handed relievers with Beck being the primary set-up man. Kevin Walker and Edgar Huerta are the left-handed candidates for the bullpen. The only other name in the mix is free agent Antonio Osuna. Witasick could be a key to the bullpen as he and Linebrink are the only Padres relievers that aren't soft tossers.
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| Closer | Trevor Hoffman will reclaim the closers role in 2004 after missing most of 2003 with shoulder surgery. Hoffman had an ERA of 2.00 in 9 appearances at the end of last season, none of them save situations. If Hoffman is healthy, expect him to have a strong year. With the team's improvement, fans should have plenty of opportunities to hear Hell's Bells downtown.
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| Infield | GM Kevin Towers said catching was one of his off-season priorities and he addressed it in a big way. The acquisition of Ramon Hernandez gives the Padres an everyday catcher that hit 14 more home runs, slugged .150 points higher and scored 30 more runs than San Diego got from its backstops in 2003. Nevin will play first base, a position he is much more comfortable at than the outfield where he'd look lost on fly balls. Mark Loretta was the Padres best player in 2003 and is back to play second base after joining Randy Johnson as the only players to sign in-season contract extensions last year. Loretta set a team record for hits by a second baseman in 2003 while playing in a career high 154 games. Burroughs is back as the starting third baseman and will also be the Padres leadoff hitter. Burroughs posted a .362 OBP in 126 AB's in the leadoff spot last season and says he plans to run more in 2004. Shortstop is open to competition between Rey Ordonez and Khalil Greene. Both are good defenders but Greene could start the year at triple-A Portland so he can get consistent playing time.
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| Outfield | The Padres are set in the outfield with Klesko, Payton and Giles set to play everyday. Klesko is still rehabbing from shoulder surgery last season but his numbers in 2003 should be taken with a grain of salt as he could have shut it down long before he finally went under the knife. Klesko will play left field at Petco Park to ease his adjustment to the outfield. Giles played left last season but can cover more group and will play in right field to help cover the big gap in that power alley. Payton will play center field and hit sixth in the order. The Padres hope he can come close to matching last year's career highs in home runs and RBI's set in the thin air of Colorado.
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| Bench Depth | Brian Buchanan is the only bench player from 2003 that is still with the team in 2004. Big Buck hit only .227 as a pinch hitter but is a nice option against left-handed pitchers. He hit .302 and slugged .528 against lefties last year. Jeff Cirillo and Terrence Long will be backups simply because of their guaranteed contracts. If the Padres could unload them they would and equally talented by less expensive players are readily available. Ramon Vazquez will be the backup middle infielder and can player second, short and third. The backup catchers spot is up for grabs between Tom Wilson and Miguel Ojeda.
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Post-season moves: A- The Padres addressed all of their major needs and did it without breaking the bank or dealing any of their few highly regarded prospects. Their trend of bringing veterans like Giles and Wells home is a hit with the fans too.
Team grade: B
Prediction: Second in division (85-77)
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| Article last modified March 1 |
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